A Preview of 2012…on the Senatorial Reserve

Let’s be honest: It’s been a good long while. A good long while spent focusing on my studies (as a BBA-Management major, nonetheless). But it does not mean I have completely forgotten about what I do when the subject is not about my career or my education, my thoughts on sports and popular culture, or my recent genealogical pursuits — if you can trace your family roots to Revolutionary War Capt. William Frederick Houseal of South Carolina or the 19th-century Frederick Hoffman of New Orleans, it should not be hard to understand just what I mean by the latter.

In fact, the 2012 elections are just as serious a matter on the legislative side of things as they are on the more visible Presidential one. Judging by some of my recent tweets and family discussions I have had already, I have already given out a hint as to who I will be voting for the presidential primary — and it won’t be just to get a chance to be a delegate from my home base, it will actually have meaning. But I want to take some time right now to focus on the complex, but deserving competition that exists in the 2012 battles for control of Congress.

There is no surprise that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid truly engineered the worst Congress in my short lifetime. But John Boehner has proven not to be any better. Simply crying about how much you love your country, and then raising the roof on the national debt clock while wasting time on Planned Parenthood and NPR, is no more beneficial to the average American than using Americans’ unprecedented devotion to a more self-sufficient America as an excuse to push a pork-laden carbon cap bill and a mandate to throw the uninsured in federal prison through Congress and a one-way ticket to the Rose Garden. And don’t get me started on redistricting in my home state — my own plan (which I will show to you later, tomorrow at least), is far better than what the Republicrat legislature and activist judicial panel in San Antonio cooked up.

So now, I will take this time to focus on what perhaps may be the Republican Party’s most important battle — of course outside of the race to defeat Barack Obama. That battle is for control of the Democratic-controlled Senate, where Republicans hope to capitalize on momentum from 2010′s gains, an unpopular Congress, and a large majority of Democrats having to defend their seats to take the gavel back into their own hands.

As it stands, there are 51 Democrats and 47 Republicans in the world’s most exclusive club. And the Democratic advantage jumps to 53 when the two “independent” Senators — one a full-blown neoconservative, the other a self-described socialist — are factored in. But come 2012, Democrats and Republicans may find themselves on different sides of the coin, with the neoconservative gone and the socialist all but certain to color his walls blue, as he does now. From what has been sorted out thus far, it is clear that some of the 2006 Democratic victors could face their own defeat in 2012, while conservatives hope to build on their 2010 successes with the election of even more like-minded Senators in this cycle. The examples on display effectively neuter the need for a bean counter.

As was the case in 2010, conservatives believe that having a Democratic majority with a Republican conference of principled conservatives is far better than a Republican majority of invertebrates seeking power and demagoguery over principle and courage. When Republicans like Arizona’s John McCain and South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham have to resort to identity politics to hide their conservative shortcomings, it becomes easy to tell that the “A-list” in the GOP Senate penthouse offers nothing more than the same empty promises and baggage thought to be in the possession of the Democrats.

That’s where South Carolina’s other GOP Senator, Jim DeMint, comes in to the void. Considered the least powerful Senator in 2005, DeMint has since worked his way up into the upper echelons of the upper chamber, yet still finds himself fighting a GOP establishment still believing they can give Tony Perkins, Bill Kristol and the rest of the conservative/Republican establishment everything they want as long as the deficit balloons, the economy suffers, and Americans remain saddled with a decrepit regulatory climate. But 2010 proved to be a good year for DeMint, with conservatives such as Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Utah’s Mike Lee and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey leading the charge for a reinvigorated GOP poised to take charge of their chamber by 2014, if not 2012.

But the Senate Conservatives Fund, which promotes principled conservative candidates for Senate races across the country, still has a long way to go in this cycle. Thus far, they are making progress with Ted Cruz gaining conservative grassroots support and on the verge of toppling Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in a likely Republican runoff for the Texas seat being vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. But in Ohio, while State Treasurer Josh Mandel appears poised to become the likely GOP nominee for his seat, he still faces long odds against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in a recession-weary state whose voters still can’t seem to get the notion: that constant fealty to powerful unions and their unsympathetic allies is what is causing, not alleviating, their economic pains at home.

Still, this Senate election is proving to be the Republicans’ to lose, with Senate Majority Leader Reid still wishing it were still 2009 — or better yet, 2007 — all over again. Where Republicans do have open seats is a hard sell: principled conservative Jeff Flake holds the upper hand in Arizona despite the promising campaign of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona from the Democrats, while Democrats have struggled to find a viable candidate in Texas. Where Democrats are calling it a career is even more bleak: Kent Conrad’s North Dakota seat is a likely goner, while Nebraska Democrats are hopeful that former Senator Bob Kerrey will make an attempt to reclaim his old seat — any other outcome likely guarantees the GOP another gain.

Not every open Democratic seat is lost for the Donkey Brigade. In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine is looking forward to a rematch with former Senator George Allen — who may not even win his own GOP primary. In Wisconsin, the GOP hopes to make it a pair in their state’s Senate delegation, but Democrats hope to make history in electing the first openly lesbian member of the Senate (congresswoman Tammy Baldwin). In Hawaii, Linda Lingle hopes to claim a GOP foothold in what has turned out to be a strongly blue state, but Democrats still hold the edge even with a competitive primary of their own between two candidates with congressional experience — one (Mazie Hirono) currently serving the state’s 2nd District, the other (Ed Case) being her predecessor.

And there are still Democrats who could feel the wrath of disappointed, angry and frustrated constituents back home. Missouri’s Claire McCaskill may have been one of the heroes of the 2006 Democratic wave, but could find herself seeking work after 2012. Jon Tester benefited from a Montana constituency weary of corruption six years prior, but now faces a spirited challenge from the state’s lone congressman, Republican Denny Rehberg. And in West Virginia, a historically Democratic and populist state gaining suburban territory thanks to transplants from the Washington and Pittsburgh areas, Joe Manchin is once again facing a rematch from the same candidate he defeated in 2010, Republican John Raese. Even veteran Democrats are feeling the heat: if you’re Bill Nelson of Florida, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, or Maria Cantwell of the state of Washington — don’t expect a coronation down the road.

Not every Republican is expected to sail smoothly this year. The Democrats scored a major coup in Massachusetts when Elizabeth Warren decided to jump into the Senate race against Republican incumbent Scott Brown, turning Ted Kennedy’s former seat into a pure battleground that may as well, given Massachusetts’ political tilt, make it Warren’s race to lose despite Brown’s incumbent advantage. And in Nevada, despite the promising prospects of newly minted Republican Dean Heller, Shelley Berkley hopes to capitalize upon the state’s growing Latino population (and support from Harry Reid and company as well as a volatile GOP establishment) to notch up another win for the Democrats.

Finally, there exist incumbents from both parties that appear safe — but whose fate could still change in the coming months. Dianne Feinstein is still above the fray in California, but even her own act is getting old in a state whose GOP was virtually listless in 2010 and has nowhere to go but up — trust me, there will be a conservative renaissance in California even if it’s not this year. The same goes for New Jersey’s Bob Menendez, the target of failed recall efforts who may still benefit from a lackadaisical slate of existing GOP candidates in spite of a fairly reinvigorated GOP base. For Indiana conservatives, holding onto their GOP-held seat cuts two ways: nominate Richard Lugar, and the election is practically over but the establishment still wins — reject Lugar, and you will have a spirited battle (against Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly) with the prospect of a principled conservative (Richard Mourdock) in the end. And in Utah, Orrin Hatch may still face the same fate that befell Mike Lee’s predecessor — fellow Republican Bob Bennett — who did not even make it out of the state GOP convention in 2010.

Overall, Democrats will have you believe they will beef up their Senate majority even more. Republicans, on the other hand, predict total annihilation at the hands of conservatives. In all honesty, the Senate will not be decided until November the 6th, and it may still take another cycle before Barack Obama truly has to face a legislative branch vastly different from his own executive one. Throw in the swingy judicial branch, and Obama may be the one left holding the bag when January 4, 2013 rolls around. Personally, my recommendation is for a principled conservative majority of Republican senators who actually stick to their guns, pay for their own “free” hot dogs (therefore financially benefiting the cooks), and articulate their principles in a way their caveman constituencies can understand. Consider myself crazy, but this to me is the best way going forward for America, and the most optimal way to dig America out of the trenches and into the sunlight.

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