In fact, the 2012 elections are just as serious a matter on the legislative side of things as they are on the more visible Presidential one. Judging by some of my recent tweets and family discussions I have had already, I have already given out a hint as to who I will be voting for the presidential primary — and it won’t be just to get a chance to be a delegate from my home base, it will actually have meaning. But I want to take some time right now to focus on the complex, but deserving competition that exists in the 2012 battles for control of Congress.

There is no surprise that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid truly engineered the worst Congress in my short lifetime. But John Boehner has proven not to be any better. Simply crying about how much you love your country, and then raising the roof on the national debt clock while wasting time on Planned Parenthood and NPR, is no more beneficial to the average American than using Americans’ unprecedented devotion to a more self-sufficient America as an excuse to push a pork-laden carbon cap bill and a mandate to throw the uninsured in federal prison through Congress and a one-way ticket to the Rose Garden. And don’t get me started on redistricting in my home state — my own plan (which I will show to you later, tomorrow at least), is far better than what the Republicrat legislature and activist judicial panel in San Antonio cooked up.

So now, I will take this time to focus on what perhaps may be the Republican Party’s most important battle — of course outside of the race to defeat Barack Obama. That battle is for control of the Democratic-controlled Senate, where Republicans hope to capitalize on momentum from 2010′s gains, an unpopular Congress, and a large majority of Democrats having to defend their seats to take the gavel back into their own hands.

As it stands, there are 51 Democrats and 47 Republicans in the world’s most exclusive club. And the Democratic advantage jumps to 53 when the two “independent” Senators — one a full-blown neoconservative, the other a self-described socialist — are factored in. But come 2012, Democrats and Republicans may find themselves on different sides of the coin, with the neoconservative gone and the socialist all but certain to color his walls blue, as he does now. From what has been sorted out thus far, it is clear that some of the 2006 Democratic victors could face their own defeat in 2012, while conservatives hope to build on their 2010 successes with the election of even more like-minded Senators in this cycle. The examples on display effectively neuter the need for a bean counter.

As was the case in 2010, conservatives believe that having a Democratic majority with a Republican conference of principled conservatives is far better than a Republican majority of invertebrates seeking power and demagoguery over principle and courage. When Republicans like Arizona’s John McCain and South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham have to resort to identity politics to hide their conservative shortcomings, it becomes easy to tell that the “A-list” in the GOP Senate penthouse offers nothing more than the same empty promises and baggage thought to be in the possession of the Democrats.

That’s where South Carolina’s other GOP Senator, Jim DeMint, comes in to the void. Considered the least powerful Senator in 2005, DeMint has since worked his way up into the upper echelons of the upper chamber, yet still finds himself fighting a GOP establishment still believing they can give Tony Perkins, Bill Kristol and the rest of the conservative/Republican establishment everything they want as long as the deficit balloons, the economy suffers, and Americans remain saddled with a decrepit regulatory climate. But 2010 proved to be a good year for DeMint, with conservatives such as Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Utah’s Mike Lee and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey leading the charge for a reinvigorated GOP poised to take charge of their chamber by 2014, if not 2012.

But the Senate Conservatives Fund, which promotes principled conservative candidates for Senate races across the country, still has a long way to go in this cycle. Thus far, they are making progress with Ted Cruz gaining conservative grassroots support and on the verge of toppling Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in a likely Republican runoff for the Texas seat being vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. But in Ohio, while State Treasurer Josh Mandel appears poised to become the likely GOP nominee for his seat, he still faces long odds against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in a recession-weary state whose voters still can’t seem to get the notion: that constant fealty to powerful unions and their unsympathetic allies is what is causing, not alleviating, their economic pains at home.

Still, this Senate election is proving to be the Republicans’ to lose, with Senate Majority Leader Reid still wishing it were still 2009 — or better yet, 2007 — all over again. Where Republicans do have open seats is a hard sell: principled conservative Jeff Flake holds the upper hand in Arizona despite the promising campaign of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona from the Democrats, while Democrats have struggled to find a viable candidate in Texas. Where Democrats are calling it a career is even more bleak: Kent Conrad’s North Dakota seat is a likely goner, while Nebraska Democrats are hopeful that former Senator Bob Kerrey will make an attempt to reclaim his old seat — any other outcome likely guarantees the GOP another gain.

Not every open Democratic seat is lost for the Donkey Brigade. In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine is looking forward to a rematch with former Senator George Allen — who may not even win his own GOP primary. In Wisconsin, the GOP hopes to make it a pair in their state’s Senate delegation, but Democrats hope to make history in electing the first openly lesbian member of the Senate (congresswoman Tammy Baldwin). In Hawaii, Linda Lingle hopes to claim a GOP foothold in what has turned out to be a strongly blue state, but Democrats still hold the edge even with a competitive primary of their own between two candidates with congressional experience — one (Mazie Hirono) currently serving the state’s 2nd District, the other (Ed Case) being her predecessor.

And there are still Democrats who could feel the wrath of disappointed, angry and frustrated constituents back home. Missouri’s Claire McCaskill may have been one of the heroes of the 2006 Democratic wave, but could find herself seeking work after 2012. Jon Tester benefited from a Montana constituency weary of corruption six years prior, but now faces a spirited challenge from the state’s lone congressman, Republican Denny Rehberg. And in West Virginia, a historically Democratic and populist state gaining suburban territory thanks to transplants from the Washington and Pittsburgh areas, Joe Manchin is once again facing a rematch from the same candidate he defeated in 2010, Republican John Raese. Even veteran Democrats are feeling the heat: if you’re Bill Nelson of Florida, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, or Maria Cantwell of the state of Washington — don’t expect a coronation down the road.

Not every Republican is expected to sail smoothly this year. The Democrats scored a major coup in Massachusetts when Elizabeth Warren decided to jump into the Senate race against Republican incumbent Scott Brown, turning Ted Kennedy’s former seat into a pure battleground that may as well, given Massachusetts’ political tilt, make it Warren’s race to lose despite Brown’s incumbent advantage. And in Nevada, despite the promising prospects of newly minted Republican Dean Heller, Shelley Berkley hopes to capitalize upon the state’s growing Latino population (and support from Harry Reid and company as well as a volatile GOP establishment) to notch up another win for the Democrats.

Finally, there exist incumbents from both parties that appear safe — but whose fate could still change in the coming months. Dianne Feinstein is still above the fray in California, but even her own act is getting old in a state whose GOP was virtually listless in 2010 and has nowhere to go but up — trust me, there will be a conservative renaissance in California even if it’s not this year. The same goes for New Jersey’s Bob Menendez, the target of failed recall efforts who may still benefit from a lackadaisical slate of existing GOP candidates in spite of a fairly reinvigorated GOP base. For Indiana conservatives, holding onto their GOP-held seat cuts two ways: nominate Richard Lugar, and the election is practically over but the establishment still wins — reject Lugar, and you will have a spirited battle (against Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly) with the prospect of a principled conservative (Richard Mourdock) in the end. And in Utah, Orrin Hatch may still face the same fate that befell Mike Lee’s predecessor — fellow Republican Bob Bennett — who did not even make it out of the state GOP convention in 2010.

Overall, Democrats will have you believe they will beef up their Senate majority even more. Republicans, on the other hand, predict total annihilation at the hands of conservatives. In all honesty, the Senate will not be decided until November the 6th, and it may still take another cycle before Barack Obama truly has to face a legislative branch vastly different from his own executive one. Throw in the swingy judicial branch, and Obama may be the one left holding the bag when January 4, 2013 rolls around. Personally, my recommendation is for a principled conservative majority of Republican senators who actually stick to their guns, pay for their own “free” hot dogs (therefore financially benefiting the cooks), and articulate their principles in a way their caveman constituencies can understand. Consider myself crazy, but this to me is the best way going forward for America, and the most optimal way to dig America out of the trenches and into the sunlight.

Suddenly, as I drew the story to a close, an even more dangerous game emerged several thousand miles away. Over the public address system, Principal Lynn Marshall broke news of an unfolding disaster in New York City: the twin towers of the World Trade Center were attacked by hijacked jetliners — first the North Tower, and then the South Tower.  As Mrs. Batek turned the television on to Channel 13 (ABC), and we were all exposed to the shocking footage out of Lower Manhattan, it was clear to my classmates and myself that it was no accident — and for more than just the fact that Peter Jennings and not Charlie Gibson was heard off-camera — which itself was a sign that the biggest, most horrific and most tragic story of the year (and recent history) had just occurred. For yours truly — the son of a native of New Jersey — it was shocking enough to the point where I loudly excoriated “Damn those terrorists!” just before the bell rang to go to my second class of the day.

In that second class, I would have normally been studying integrated physics and chemistry — or IPC as most like to call it — in the classroom of Mrs. Choitz. The television was not tuned in to the news, however, but even as the class dragged on over the next 45 minutes, a sinister sort of background music was playing. And the background music consisted of sirens blaring from television screens in other classrooms, that broke the news of that fateful day, and would later prepare me for what transpired once I proceeded on to my next class.

For my third period, Communication Applications was a required Speech course that students had to take as part of their high school graduation plan — though it was one course I will admit I did enjoy. After some lecturing that day from one Mrs. Bulloch, she broke even more of the news to the class. The details were even more shocking at this point: the South Tower had just collapsed, the Pentagon had been attacked (by another jetliner), a fire broke out on the National Mall (this turned out to be a hoax), and evacuations had taken place all over the country from Chicago to Walt Disney World, and by the time the TV was tuned to CNN, the North Tower had also collapsed as well. America had suffered its most catastrophic attack in ages. After this class concluded for the day, I sauntered towards the main hallway, turned left and moved on to my fourth period class.

In the fourth period Spanish 1 class of Coach Fortes, who coached volleyball for the All-American School at the time of the attacks, we were treated to news coverage on Channel 2 (NBC), but not without a reminder that a study on Spanish would soon commence after a minute or two. For those few minutes, I watched then-Houston Mayor Lee Brown hold a press conference (perhaps at Houston Transtar) regarding the tragic events, and saw afternoon anchor Khambrel Marshall and evening anchor Bill Balleza at the anchor desk — outside of their usual timeframe. When your top local news anchors are breaking the news this early in the day, it is the sort of day one would rather forget. The specter of tragedy was even more profound: another jetliner crash occurred in the vicinity of Johnstown, Pa., and a ticker on the bottom of the screen was filled with news of office buildings being evacuated in downtown Houston and stores in the Galleria closing, as well as reminders for parents to pick up their children from school.

As the expansive fifth period (this is when lunch takes place) began, and I ventured into the fifth period Algebra 1 class of Mrs. Desjardins, the expressions throughout the classroom were sullied to a large extent. It seemed as if the appetite for learning had been completely wiped out, consumed by endless news coverage of a tragedy so shocking that even old History Channel documentaries and the most graphic and controversial TV shows of the day (e.g. NYPD Blue, The Sopranos) paled in comparison to the reality that unfolded on the news. As I sat down for “C” lunch (the last of three lunches, which followed the first two lunches), a disappearing act had commenced. Names of various students were being called by faculty members in the cafeteria, each prompted to proceed to the front office to be picked up by their parents. And this is where reality was starting to set in, the conversation now dominated by news of the tragedy and students’ recollections of what they saw on the news.

Then came my sixth period World Geography class with Mrs. Garrey, who had just picked up her child from a nearby Montessori/day school. And shortly after my fellow classmates and myself sat down in their places, it had become clear that everyone was just about ready to go home; the students spent more time watching the news and playing with the little kid as opposed to exploring the globe. Many students had speculated as to who caused the carnage on the East Coast, and calls for justice to be served started to ring loud. And as if that were not enough, a note had suddenly just been sent from the front office for yours truly. In the front office was my father, who had arrived on campus to pick me up and take me back home. And so the day had concluded early, as I skipped my 7th period that would have been spent with Coach Carrabine and my boys’ basketball teammates (this was the first of my eventually four years as a team manager), and I am sure that those who did remain would have most likely either played pick up basketball, watched news of the tragedy on TV screens in the gym or the coaches’ office, or left campus early that day via parents or other peers.

Once I hopped into my father’s SUV, the radio had been tuned to AM 740 (KTRH) with wall-to-wall coverage of the day’s top story — and only story. There was nothing else of note to report — the attacks were all that mattered on the radio that day. Returning home to scan the cable channels for coverage of the disaster, almost every channel was tuned in to the tragedy, just as every television set in the house was fixated on news coverage and ambient Christian music played in the background. Anything Viacom owned (e.g. MTV) was showing Dan Rather, Peter Jennings graced the screen on ESPN, Fox News was simulcast on other Fox-owned networks, CNN was in full force on TBS and TNT, what eventually became the local Telefutura station in Houston (Channel 67) was showing Newsworld International (now Current TV) instead of the Home Shopping Network, my local PBS station was broadcasting news from the BBC, and Food Network and HGTV showed a static image of a flower in a vase, superimposed with the following text:

“Due to the nature of today’s tragic events, Food Network is suspending programming. Our thoughts go out to the victims and their families.”

– Food Network, among other Scripps-owned networks, September 11, 2001

The rest of the day was spent combining homework assignments, dinner and random browsing on the web with coverage of the attacks, including reaction from in and around Greater Houston, as well as a ticker on Fox News that even displayed the tenants of both towers of the now-fallen World Trade Center, including almost all of the Tri-State area’s television stations; the North Tower housed the transmitters of many of these stations, who lost engineers and other personnel that not only perished but never had a chance to get out alive that day, as thick smoke and raging flames enveloped the top floors of the North Tower prior to collapse. There was also the collapsed section of the Pentagon, now draped in an American flag in honor of those military personnel lost in the tragedy, and the scene of charred wreckage near Shanksville, Pennsylvania — where civilian heroes averted even greater tragedy and made the biggest sacrifice imaginable: stopping a jetliner that otherwise would have plowed into another national monument.

For yours truly and many others, the tragedy itself dominated the remainder of the week. And at lunch the following day, from a far distance from where I sat, there sat two female classmates who both exchanged chatter about church services that were held across the country the evening after that fateful day (and I am sure most likely they attended such services). The following Friday, patriotism was on full display as I donned red, white and blue both in honor of the victims of 9/11 and as a show of patriotism en route to my first cross country meet as team manager (Yes, I managed two sports in my high school days). And at church on the following Sunday — my 15th birthday — I was treated to a moving tribute to the victims of the tragedy, accompanied with contemporary Christian music playing in the background as parishioners in surrounding pews wept.

But September 11th marked even more than just the specter of war and remembrance. Patriotism became a high-demand value amongst all Americans. Air travel across the coasts and in the heartland was forever changed, thanks to beefed up security, record operating losses and whatnot. The stock exchange, which once set new daily records at the turn of the century, spiraled downward as a downturn (nothing compared to today’s recession) commenced. And for many in my generation, the glorious childhood we enjoyed in the 90s forever disappeared into the annals of history, as high degrees of adulthood developed almost instantaneously for many of us, now newly concerned about the threat of even more terror attacks and new levels of political polarization that would come in the following decade — as well as the large degree of injustice many of us suffered from laws and statues that were supposed to “protect” us from terrorists, but in the end served only to punish the average American to no avail.

Ten years later, America continues to slowly rebuild from the shadows of that dark and dreadful day on the shores of the Atlantic. As America approaches the 10th anniversary of the most heinous act of terrorism ever committed against the United States, Americans have rejoiced in the capture (and killing) of Osama bin Laden while continuing to deal with the continued threat of potential attacks as pinpointed recently by federal agents. Meanwhile, many are still figuring out as to why lawmakers rushed through unconstitutional legislation and bureaucracy (e.g. USA PATRIOT Act, the TSA’s “groping” powers) aimed at “making America safer”, while first responders who sacrificed time with their families to engage in rescue and recovery at Ground Zero — and lived to tell their stories to a curious public — now deal with a new array of health problems exacerbated by the toxic conditions of the disaster scene that day. In essence, this all serves as a reminder that the impact of this tragedy will never disappear from the realm of American society.

Across the nation, this coming Sunday is more than just a day of the week. To the surprise of no one, there will be professional football on 9/11 — the first Sunday of the regular season, with Fox’s top team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the Redskins’ season opener against the Giants in a matchup of two division rivals with strong local connections to that September day, and NBC sending Al Michaels to the Meadowlands for the Jets’ home opener against the Dallas Cowboys — America’s Team vs. Gang Green. The U.S. Open tennis tournament also soldiers on in Queens this weekend as well, already time-shifted in the wake of Hurricane Irene. And a pivotal presidential election has begun to emerge, with Barack Obama hoping to win one for the Democrats and an assortment of Republicans clamoring to claim the mantle of Reagan with the goal of taking out the current President.

But the real focal point of Sunday will be in the heart of Lower Manhattan where the Twin Towers once stood tall, in the area surrounding the Pentagon where so many armed servicemen lost their lives, and in a now infamous strip of rural hinterland in southwest Pennsylvania, where there will be moments of silence, somber music, and a strong degree of patriotism as the 10th anniversary of the most despicable act of mass murder ever committed against the United States approaches.

Yet regardless of the paths our respective gods and their prophets have drawn for us over the course of a full decade, regardless of whether or not we achieved grand fame and success or toiled in the bottom of the economic cellar, and regardless of whether we knew a treasure trove of people we lost that day or knew no victims at all, one thing does remain clear: Our pride in America will always continue to burn bright, our strength in one another will always persevere over weakness, and while remaining vigilant of whatever else may come, our resilience will continue to shine through from sea to shining sea across the heartland and beyond.

God Bless America!

At the same time, catching up with my father’s side of the family also gave me reflection on how far American youth have fallen these days. For the most part, my extended family — both paternal and maternal — has always taken a flurry of grand measures to achieve success of varying degrees. For them, success did not come overnight. Yours truly making the Dean’s List was not easy to accomplish. Neither were my grandfathers’ various business ventures. Or my parents’ challenging but very successful relationship. Or my uncles’ professional triumphs — whether at ivory towers situated in Florida and Pennsylvania or in various industrial trades from electrician to oilman and everything in between. Unfortunately, the recession has not necessarily been kind to the sort of hardworking, aspiring, responsible Americans that should be cherished as proud American patriots instead of ridiculed as “wet blankets” for the elite. And for Republicans and American conservatism at large, it seems to be easier to simply grab up the fountain of youth instead of having to earn your stripes.

Enter Meghan McCain. Since the failed presidential candidacy of her father, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the younger McCain has emerged as more than just a towel girl for the media establishment — the same one that aches for the day when Republicans will gladly cast those “heartless” conservatives aside in favor of supposedly “progressive” young voters and minorities. Now, the media establishment is attempting to portray Meghan as the defacto voice of young Republicans. The media’s argument for “freshening” the GOP is simple. Ditch scripted shows for reality shows. Listen to more Top 40 music. Act like a “valley girl” or “tool”. Do fundraisers at trashy clubs. Don’t waste time on regular churchgoers. Tout Republicans in the Obamastration. Portray anything classy and timeless (e.g. a pair of pearls, craft beer, home cooking, American-made goods) as “stuffy”. Believe that playing sports is all about money. The never-ending list goes on and on.

And I’m already yearning for my old self back. I can’t believe I just threw who I am out the window just a few moments ago. Now, I’m taking it back. Viva Poppy and Papa, underrated indie music, great entertainment, quality documentaries, broad ambitions, good cousins, the (real) Tea Party, classy American style, sportsmanship based on skill and determination, less is more, and genteel fiscal conservatism and limited government. Down with the lost generation.

Meghan McCain, who often self-styles herself as a “progressive Republican”, and is known to point out that her “friends” agree with her that the Tea Party is divisive and such, is a poor fit for the Grand Old Party in many ways. If only we could just follow her advice, we can win back all the suburbs (East Coast, West Coast, Midwest and Sunbelt, too), all the independents (Reagan Democrats, the business community), and all the traditional Republicans (paleoconservative Midwest and libertarian West, anyone?) we lost in recent years. Because that worked so well for her father in 2008, so well I nearly bolted to the even more disastrous current president or a third-party candidate for the same reason I would have backed conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth in 2010 had I been an actual Arizona resident — that’s what happens when you side with your enemy in backing a multi-billion dollar bailout that was used to dole out bonuses and acquire another large “too big to fail” bank, among other injustices. So much for all the warnings by the grassroots.

Granted, I am not a social conservative and often view legislation dealing with gay marriage, abortion and such as both an affront to limited government and a tactic used by Republicrats and phony populists who often pretend such values to hide from voters their fiscally reckless votes for TARP, increasing the debt ceiling many times over, the Bushama tax deal, cap-and-pork, and the recent Obahner debt deal. Not to mention an endless stream of nation-building, affronts to our civil rights and constitutional liberties, and bureaucratic oddities not worthy of being considered limited government. But Meghan McCain is doing herself no favors, calling on her allies and enemies to get along while coming out in favor of stifling such independence for those who disagree with her viewpoints and ideals, as evidenced in these remarks to MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell:

“I think it’s important to note that Michele Bachmann is not a leader, and she’s not the leader of the Republican Party. Michele Bachmann in my opinion is no better than a poor man’s Sarah Palin, and I think the fact that MSNBC and Fox elected not to run this is admirable to the kind of journalism Fox and MSNBC is airing; I think CNN should be ashamed of themselves for airing this. It is one rogue woman who couldn’t even look into the camera directly, and I take none of it seriously, and I think if the Tea Party wants to put a candidate up to give a response, why don’t they have someone like Rand Paul who was elected on the Tea Party platform give that?”

- Meghan McCain, on The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell (MSNBC), January 26, 2011

So Meghan McCain believes that she has a right to explain her views? I have no problem with that. Meghan is protected by the First Amendment for the very same reason I am protected by the First Amendment, so that way I can explain my viewpoints to a broad audience without interference from the government. But CNN is not allowed to show independence in journalism by showing Bachmann’s Tea Party response following the State of the Union last January? CNN is a private organization that has a right to broadcast whatever news coverage it wants, however serious or sensational it may be, and given the venue by which Meghan expressed the quote above, it sounded somewhat akin to a defense of MSNBC (conflict of interest, anyone?). Meghan works for The Daily Beast, therefore CNN could care less about whether or not broadcasting a Tea Party response is acceptable and would just go by its own logic as opposed to taking marching orders from its rivals.

And as for Michele Bachmann, she is not perfect, but is far from a “poor man’s Sarah Palin” — having come a long way from her turbulent McCarthy-esque tirade to MSNBC “host” Chris Matthews in 2008 that nearly cost Bachmann her north suburban Twin Cities seat, a seat the Republican establishment abandoned after that fateful rant. Having actually seen Bachmann in person as an alternate delegate at the Texas GOP convention last year, she has clearly earned her place in a Tea Party rostrum that also includes Rand Paul and his legendary father, Ron Paul, as well as Mike Lee, Jim DeMint, Ron Johnson, Justin Amash, Marco Rubio, Jason Chaffetz, various governors across the country from Scott Walker to Chris Christie to Rick Scott, and a flurry of other citizen-lawmakers changing the course of American politics. And no, you’re not talking to a bitter “old man” — I’m just close to 25 year old with a personal life that renders itself more akin to a poorly conceived bastard child of Stuff White People Like and The Official Preppy Handbook (with some Aspie and a lot of survivalist mentality thrown in) as opposed to the sort of slanted “reality” exposed to impressionable youth on MTV.

And speaking of MTV, when Meghan tries to find such notable youth who are willing to identify with the one-third minority of youth that voted against Obama, all paths seem to lead towards the sort of “role model” you wouldn’t want your kids to associate with. Just take Meghan McCain’s interview last year with the most infamous member of the most overrated show on the worst cable channel, Nicole Polizzi (aka  “Snooki”) of MTV’s vastly overrated garbage dump, Jersey Shore, in which Snooki came out as having supported Meghan’s father in 2008 and, after coming out against a tax on indoor tanning related to the recent ObamaCare fiasco, came up with this noble explanation:

“To be honest with you, I’m not really a Republican or a Democrat. I actually signed up as an independent, just because I don’t want to pick any side and also I don’t really know a lot about politics. I only know politics about, like, you know, tanning and being a Guidette. So when I saw it was Obama and McCain, to be honest with you, the only reason why I voted for your father was because he was really cute and I liked when he did his speeches.”

- Nicole Polizzi (aka “Snooki”), via The Daily Beast, July 11, 2010

In essence, Snooki voted for John McCain on the good charm of the candidate’s appearance and debating skills instead of policy. This is a textbook example of how not to vote for a candidate; it is the same excuse as voting for Sarah Palin or Bill Clinton because of their luck of being telegenic. And for the record, wasn’t a certain U.S. Senator and professor from Illinois supposed to be the one with the “upper hand” on looks and debating, as said by many across the political spectrum? Seems about right given that Meghan McCain started off the article with the sentence, “I watched—and loved—every second of the first season of The Jersey Shore” — wasn’t it just called “Jersey Shore” without the “the“? But this is not the only brush with MTV the McCains have experienced; the elder McCain reportedly earned an endorsement from another MTV “star” — Heidi Montag of The Hills, whose “show” is another train wreck that lasted well beyond its shelf life — a trait that not surprisingly can be expected of Jersey Shore, a show that is not only a key reason why other countries hate the United States, but is also a disgrace to the great state of New Jersey and its natives — including my father and most of his siblings. Thank God Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) had the audacity to sound the alarm last year on this disaster of a show.

But for what it’s worth, why should celebrity endorsements even matter? After all, many of my preferred actors, TV stars, musicians and other pop culture staples — you can see them on my Facebook preferences if you are lucky enough to know yours truly — backed one Barack Obama to one degree or another in 2008. And I still have tremendous respect for their talents, even if our political currents take us in vastly different directions. All thanks to an important lesson learned from my father: to never confuse one’s acting, singing or writing ability with their politics. Because you judge a singer by just their musical talent, and you judge a politician by their policies only. For the record, I strongly defended the writers in the Writer’s Guild of America strike in 2007 — because they are the ones who power American creativity, not some overzealous executive bent on ruining American entertainment just for the fun of earning a lofty bonus. And also for the record, when it comes to celebrities, Meghan McCain’s apparent fandom for Jersey Shore and the shallow MTV crowd is not helping her case, particularly among forward-thinking suburban parents who want their daughters to grow up to be professional success stories and not D-list reality TV vixens from shows that are killing your brain cells. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of these suburban parents voted for Obama in 2008 simply because of the community organizer’s own family values being fairly superior in comparison to McCain’s inherited beer empire.

Fortunately, there is more to life than fixating the future of the GOP and American conservatism on one particular person. The true face of right-leaning youth is found in different parts of the country, from the tony suburbs of Philadelphia to the downtrodden streets of Detroit, from the resilient shores of the Gulf Coast to the rolling prairies of the Midwest, from the rugged terrain of the Rockies to the barren deserts of the Southwest, and from the colonial enclaves of the original thirteen colonies to the breathtaking shores of California, there are young conservatives — some of whom have been Republicans their whole life, others who are independent conservatives, third-party conservatives or even conservative Democrats, and others who backed Barack Obama in 2008 but have since fallen out of favor with their once-promising choice. These are young people who know their future is at stake and that all their hopes and aspirations have been tempered in the face of an eternal struggle to survive. Even if some of them end up backing the current occupant of the White House next year as a mere protest vote, they know that the Democratic Party has fallen far from the likes of the Clintons and the Kennedys, and that even Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid don’t fit the bill of the emerging Democratic grassroots and establishment, which is more apt to supporting the likes of George McGovern and Walter Mondale.

In essence, young Republicans and conservatives are represented by aspiring, creative, independent and driven individuals who see endless debt-ceiling games, about faces on foreign policy, and unconstitutional endeavors into one’s personal lives as the exact opposite of policy that is meant to be effective, sensible and empowering the individual and their ambitions, not “writers” who only become famous because of their family name and a campaign memoir that earned middling reviews from Amazon.com customers — as evidenced with Meghan McCain, who many Americans would never have heard of if her father was not a one-time failed presidential candidate from a state that even came close to voting for his opponent in 2008. And the same can be said of Bristol Palin and her mother Sarah, Chelsea Clinton and her father Bill, the Bush daughters and their father, Ronald Reagan’s own children (Ron Jr., anyone?), and the various ancestors of the Kennedy clan. Better yet, why should being in a political dynasty even matter? Isn’t the American Dream supposed to mean making it on your own terms and not someone else’s good fortune?

Of course, there are ways that Meghan McCain can improve her credentials. She can further explain what her views on the Tea Party really are. Maybe she can try to find rapport and common ground with young conservatives who share my ideals. And I would gladly ask her a simple question: aren’t there any better role models who are Republican or right-leaning you can point to that are not on the dark side of life? But as long as she is continuing to take the path she has chosen and continue drinking the political establishment’s tonic (not to mention giving off the assumption that pandering to the worst elements of American youth is the way for the GOP to go in the future), she will never be taken seriously as a political writer, better yet a “face” of the Republican Party or American conservatism in general. In the meantime, I will still continue to remind myself that there are talented, deserving young people in America who have better things to do than just offer silly platitudes and kiss up to the pro-big government media monopoly that is neither pro-American nor sane and intelligent. The day when a majority of reasonable young people receive the attention they deserve from the political world is a day we can all look forward to, and I look forward to that day.

And yes, today, Poppy and Papa — wherever they are — are smiling from above, and proud of all I have done in life.

When the 111th Congress was set in stone in November of 2008, it was the culmination of voter anger ultimately directed at George W. Bush’s administration — an administration that made a mockery of American conservatism and its erstwhile partisan cousin, the Republican Party. Under the younger Bush, a combination of pandering to the Religious Right (a distinct breed separate from traditional social conservatives) and neoconservatives, egregious catchphrases by the likes of “deficits don’t matter” and “mission accomplished”, and rules that allowed government growth — both fiscally and physically — to reach unprecedented levels all took its toll on the Grand Old Party. Despite establishment cries that any Democrat would be far more dangerous than any Republican, voters saw the truth and voted with their own two feet.

While the Democrats had the last laugh in 2006 and 2008, the general losers were mainly Republicans who boasted about wanting to impose laws regulating the personal choices of the average American (be it poker, marriage or anything else best left to individuals or to the states), yet were either silent or defiant when fiscally sound proposals to reform Social Security and Medicare, reduce the oversized and pork-laden Department of Defense or reformulate the country’s archaic tax code came up. The same attitudes were espoused when these same Republicans were exposed for their roles in such controversial legislation as the infamous “Bridge to Nowhere”, the PATRIOT Act, No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D and TARP — which provided Americans a toxic diet of constitutional junk unfit to be considered elements of “limited government”.

2008 was indeed not a good year to be a Republican. No matter how much the GOP establishment tried to cry wolf that Nancy Pelosi was a disastrous speaker (and yes, she has been disastrous in her role), even worse was the fact that many Republicans contributed to the mess as well both when Pelosi held the gavel and when her GOP predecessor Dennis Hastert did as well. And no matter how much some Republicans tried to play the God card with the Federal Marriage Amendment, the war card with the War in Iraq, or the economy card with TARP, the toxic stew of lax fiscal discipline, government intrusions in intricate personal matters best left to the states and the general public, a misguided military policy and constitutional disrespect only served to make the Republican Party’s time-tested, winning and longstanding stances on fiscal responsibility, sophisticated foreign policy, and respect for constitutional boundaries insanely hypocritical.

That being said, moving forward two years later, I was nothing more than honest with my views at the Texas GOP convention in Dallas last June, of which I had the privilege to attend as an alternate delegate from the same sliver of suburban Houston that I have long been associated with. And Minnesota congresswoman and tea party favorite Michele Bachmann — for all the imperfections during her congressional tenure — gave a rather anti-climatic speech during an evening banquet that epitomized the importance of the 2010 elections — even apologizing for her home state, a traditional Democratic bastion, introducing the world to such actors as Eugene McCarthy and Al Franken (as if “break a leg” even mattered to them). Indeed, Bachmann was elected in a competitive 2006 race as a conservative Republican who prevailed in a year that some in the GOP establishment tried to paint as one where Republican losses stemmed from swinging too far to the right, when in fact the Washington Republican establishment became not much different from the Democrats they claimed to oppose.

The highlight of the convention, however, was the rare floor fight vote – where I had the rare opportunity to cast my vote for newly minted Texas GOP Chairman Steve Munisteri – despite being ranked in the middle tier of the alternate pack of 77. And it was a group that was more than able to supplement the 77 delegates from my corner of Texas Senate District 17, a gerrymandered district’s gerrymandered district that stretches  in the manner of a snake from Bellaire through the glorious west side of Houston, Katy, Sugar Land, Lake Jackson and Galveston, all the way to Port Arthur. Of course, I managed to gain valuable political experience and met a variety of new faces I never saw in person before, including Munisteri himself.

2010 was indeed the kind of year that I hoped for: a year where Republicans returned to focusing on the principles that got them elected in the first place, as opposed to trying to be everything to everyone or basing arguments on sentiment or identity instead of logic — an approach that failed in the last two elections. The establishment attacked Munisteri as being “moderate”, while disregarding the fact that Munisteri helped to found the Young Conservatives of Texas — a well-respected conservative organization in the state — many years back. But given the establishment’s past political fallacies, a new crop of Republican, conservative and Tea Party newcomers (yours truly included) saw a different view of the situation and the winds of change within the Texas GOP did more than just prevail this time. In this clearly anti-establishment election, Republicans in Texas benefited greatly, winning three congressional seats and gaining a near super-majority of 99 Republicans elected to the state House; that majority has since become a true super-majority of 101 with the recent defections of two House Democrats to the GOP conference.

In 2011, I can only hope that the new Republican majority in the U.S. House, the GOP newcomers in the U.S. Senate, and the Elephant Stampede’s super-majority in the Texas Legislature will finally wake up and realize that what got them elected was not their party label, but the votes of millions of Americans fed up with the political establishment buying time and using it to abuse the wheels of government and jeopardize the future of the country and its over 300 million residents. If reforming the government to keep it out of our wallets, our doctors’ offices, our gun cases, our schools, our places of worship and our bedrooms and reallocating resources to where they belong means being called “racist”, “sexist”, “heartless”, “elitist”, “anti-American” or worse, so be it. The average American is tired of having to play the hypocrite card with those elected to serve their interests and defend the Constitution they were sworn in on, but who then take their cars and go on a joyride, leaving their constituents with the bill.

And Republicans should also remember this argument, especially if they want to continue holding their House majority in Washington, gain the keys to the most exclusive club in the world (the Senate), and keep their legislative super-majority in Austin. When voters are forced to choose between one of two choices: a Republican who panders to phony populism in voting for wasteful spending and pork projects, putting our country in debt, and bloating our nation’s already overstretched military system…eventually resorting to social issues best left to lower levels of government and society just to distract voters from their abysmal records on important issues, and a Democrat that voters know will push for such an activist government, voters will choose the Democrat on the belief that the Democrat is being honest and the Republican is being hypocritical. And proud patriotic Americans will always forgive sinners, but have no respect for hypocrites.

If Republicans fail to realize the primary reason they got elected in the first place, ignore pressings issues that demand immediate attention, and instead resort to attacking Obama on such trivial matters as his birth certificate or even whether or not his burger has Dijon mustard, the Donkey Brigade will be more than glad to take back the baton and benefit from such distractions. As a Republican who is looking forward to the next presidential election (as well as a competitive U.S. Senate primary I am anticipating in 2012), I remain optimistic about the chances of true leadership prevailing during the new legislative sessions in Washington and Austin. But I also remain vigilant, for the people of this great country deserve more than just promises, they want action. And my hope is that by the end of this week, a well-deserved dose of action will prevail.

This Sunday — barring another change of plans at the last minute, portions of the former Imperial Sugar refinery in yours truly’s hometown of Sugar Land will be coming down by means of implosion. At 7 a.m., two metal buildings adjacent to the historic symbol of the city — Imperial Sugar’s old char house — will come down with the aid of explosives coordinated both to provide a sense of entertainment and optimism for the future and to keep the char house from being harmed in the path of the implosions’ debris and associated clouds of smoke and dust. Of course, this will be followed by the cleanup and restoration of the property as part of a new chapter in Sugar Land’s relatively young but hectic over half-century life.

In reflecting on my past and present recollections of the old Imperial Sugar refinery, I take into account the visual memories of the complex that solely defined Sugar Land well before commercial and residential development reached a critical mass south of the refinery. Driving past the compound on countless occasions — be it a routine trip to the store or a glance on the way out of town — often burned in the mind of yours truly an image of curiosity and spectacle. Sometimes, it was the flashing red “Pure Cane” square, on the neon blue metal sign gracing the top of the char house that could be seen for countless miles. At other times, it was the occasional formation of a cross on the char house’s walls of windows, particularly during the holiday season.

However, based on my own recollections, the best visual perception I ever had of the refinery was in grade school during a field trip to the landmark complex with my third-grade peers. While I had many unique experiences resulting from this field trip, the pungent smell of molasses from within the char house and surrounding buildings still lingers on to this day within my own mind, even though sugar has not been produced in Sugar Land since the factory closed in 2002. But the defining fact of the trip, that I did manage to experience the spectacle that was the amazing refinery off of 90 before it closed, is one recollection worth telling my own children and grandchildren down the road when they encounter the char house one day.

Of course, while the metal buildings — the old furnace house and the bin building — will forever be disappearing from Sugar Land’s skyline, the char house will serve as the cornerstone of a new development for the site, appropriately titled Imperial, that will serve both as a reminder of a time when Sugar Land was little more than a company town run by Imperial Sugar and as the defining project of the 2010s for this well-groomed slice of suburbia whose residents are proud to represent their community. From a personal standpoint, I am for one glad that Sugar Landians know how to develop, groom and take care of a community, as opposed to the unsustainable sprawl in a specific, much larger adjacent jurisdiction notorious for tearing down its history and imposing undesirable elements on its fair-minded, self-conscious suburban neighbors.

Within the confines of Imperial’s well-sweetened grounds will be a mix of new high-quality residential and commercial development, as well as a minor league ballpark for Sugar Land’s new minor league baseball team, the Skeeters — a fairly common reference to the countless mosquitoes that congregate around town when a major rainstorm commences, which explains the noise of the mosquito trucks that pass by my neighborhood after the rain has fallen. And various landscaping elements from a network of hiking trails to perhaps a more aesthetically pleasing Oyster Creek can also be expected of the new development, whose players include the city of Sugar Land,  the Cherokee Investments private equity firm, our state’s land office, and Houston-based Johnson Development — the same Johnson Development that also gave the people of Fort Bend County such developments as Riverstone and Sienna Plantation.

Of course, there will be many elements of the old refinery that will be incorporated into integral parts of the new development. And central to this project will be none other than the Pink Lady — the beloved char house that has withstood everything from suburban sprawl to powerful hurricanes. While countless uses have been talked about in addition to a museum honoring Sugar Land’s heritage that will be planned for the site, I also personally envision the char house as being a future metro station for when commuter rail eventually reaches Sugar Land — and from a personal perspective, if commuter rail does come Sugar Land’s way, it will be done in a way that preserves the integrity of the community and keeps the vagrants out; whichever civic leaders accomplish the rather impossible feat of relieving congestion, fighting crime, providing a strong sense of community and keeping costs low at the same time will deserve more than just a badge of honor, they will also deserve a place in history.

But whatever history emerges from a prospective and rather speculative potential from of transit, plus the history being accomplished with the refurbishing and redevelopment of the historic property, will pale in comparison to the volumes of history that many people, including yours truly, have in their own recollections of the old refinery. The memories I captured in person can never be wholly replicated, but I will always remember those memories of that one field trip in the middle of the 90s. And for what it’s worth, I personally look forward to seeing the final outcome of the finished product when the dust settles. For the Pink Lady, a new era has dawned — one that will serve to be as bustling as it was when sugar rolled out of the refinery and onto store shelves.

Regardless of whatever else may come in terms of development, the Pink Lady was Sugar Land’s icon then, it is Sugar Land’s icon now, and it will be Sugar Land’s icon for future generations to come.

Today is E-Day throughout the United States, as voters cast their ballots in this crucial midterm election that will lay out the path for the future of this country. With the Obamastration having created a nightmare situation for many Americans, with legislative foibles dooming many Democrats and a blue-ribbon Cabinet that has since been torn to shreds in the face of scandal and controversy.

But don’t necessarily call this a night where victory means Democratic defeats and Republican victories. That’s what overpriced consultants who think you’re stupid want you to believe. Most Americans — in fact, the vast majority of Americans — are not stupid, and their votes today will undoubtedly be a continuation of the referendum voters sent to Capitol Hill recently — first taking it out on George W. Bush, and now taking it out on Barack Obama.

But what I do know for a fact is that it’s no longer a matter of if Republicans are going to celebrate, but when they are going to celebrate and how big a mandate. To break this down, I have decided to roll out the Big List, and taking into account my verum secundum, I can pretty much predict which House seats will fall into Republican hands tonight.

Starting point: 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, 2 vacancies (All times SLDT)

5:00pm – most of Indiana and Kentucky

Indiana 02: Donnelly (D) > Walorski (R)

Indiana 03: GOP vacancy filled by Stutzman (R), 255-179-1 DEM

Indiana 09: Hill (D) > Young (R)

Kentucky 03: Yarmuth (D) > Lally (R)

Kentucky 06: Chandler (D) > Barr (R)

6:00pm – most of Florida, remainder of Indiana and Kentucky, and all of Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia

Florida 02: Boyd (D) < Southerland (R), 254-180-1 DEM (GOP pickup #1)

Florida 08: Grayson (D) < Webster (R), 253-181-1 DEM (GOP pickup #2)

Florida 12: Ross (R) > Edwards (D) > Wilkinson (Tea Party)

Florida 22: Klein (D) < West (R), 252-182-1 DEM (GOP pickup #3)

Florida 24: Kosmas (D) < Adams (R), 251-183-1 DEM (GOP pickup #4)

Florida 25: Rivera (R) > Garcia (D)

Georgia 02: Bishop (D) < Keown (R), 250-184-1 DEM (GOP pickup #5)

Georgia 08: Marshall (D) < Scott (R), 249-185-1 DEM (GOP pickup #6)

Georgia 12: Barrow (D) > McKinney (R)

Indiana 08: Van Haaften (D) < Bucshon (R), 248-186-1 DEM (GOP pickup #7)

South Carolina 02: Wilson (R) > Miller (D)

South Carolina 05: Spratt (D) < Mulvaney (R), 247-187-1 DEM (GOP pickup #8)

Virginia 02: Nye (D) < Rigell (R), 246-188-1 DEM (GOP pickup #9)

Virginia 05: Perriello (D) < Hurt (R), 245-189-1 DEM (GOP pickup #10)

Virginia 09: Boucher (D) > Griffith (R)

Virginia 11: Connolly (D) > Fimian (R)

6:30pm – North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia

North Carolina 02: Etheridge (D) < Ellmers (R), 244-190-1 DEM (GOP pickup #11)

North Carolina 04: Price (D) > Lawson (R)

North Carolina 07: McIntyre (D) < Pantano (R), 243-191-1 DEM (GOP pickup #12)

North Carolina 08: Kissell (D) < Johnson (R), 242-192-1 DEM (GOP pickup #13)

North Carolina 11: Shuler (D) > Miller (R)

Ohio 01: Driehaus (D) < Chabot (R), 241-193-1 DEM (GOP pickup #14)

Ohio 06: Wilson (D) > Johnson (R)

Ohio 10: Kucinich (D) > Corrigan (R)

Ohio 12: Tiberi (R) > Brooks (D)

Ohio 13: Sutton (D) > Ganley (R)

Ohio 15: Kilroy (D) < Stivers (R), 240-194-1 DEM (GOP pickup #15)

Ohio 16: Boccieri (D) < Renacci (R), 239-195-1 DEM (GOP pickup #16)

Ohio 18: Space (D) < Gibbs (R), 238-196-1 DEM (GOP pickup #17)

West Virginia 1: Oliverio (D) > McKinley (R)

West Virginia 3: Rahall (D) > Maynard (R)

7:00pm – Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (Pensacola area), Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas (except El Paso)

Alabama 02: Bright (D) > Roby (R)

Alabama 05: Brooks (R) > Raby (D)

Connecticut 04: Himes (D) < Debicella (R), 237-197-1 DEM (GOP pickup #18)

Connecticut 05: Murphy (D) < Caligiuri (R), 236-198-1 DEM (GOP pickup #19)

Delaware 00: Urquhart (R) < Carney (D), 237-197-1 DEM (DEM pickup #1)

Illinois 08: Bean (D) < Walsh (R), 236-198-1 DEM (GOP pickup #20)

Illinois 09: Schakowsky (D) > Pollak (R)

Illinois 10: Dold (R) > Seals (D)

Illinois 11: Halvorson (D) < Kinzinger (R), 235-199-1 DEM (GOP pickup #21)

Illinois 14: Foster (D) < Hultgren (R), 234-200-1 DEM (GOP pickup #22)

Illinois 17: Hare (D) < Schilling (R), 233-201-1 DEM (GOP pickup #23)

Maine 01: Pingree (D) < Scontras (R), 232-202-1 DEM (GOP pickup #24)

Maine 02: Michaud (D) > Levesque (R)

Maryland 01: Kratovil (D) < Harris (R), 231-203-1 DEM (GOP pickup #25)

Massachusetts 04: Frank (D) > Bielat (R)

Massachusetts 05: Tsongas (D) > Golnik (R)

Massachusetts 06: Tierney (D) > Hudak (R)

Massachusetts 10: Keating (D) < Perry (R), 230-204-1 DEM (GOP pickup #26)

Michigan 01: McDowell (D) < Benishek (R), 229-205-1 DEM (GOP pickup #27)

Michigan 03: Amash (R) > Miles (D)

Michigan 07: Schauer (D) < Walberg (R), 228-206-1 DEM (GOP pickup #28)

Michigan 09: Peters (D) < Raczkowski (R), 227-207-1 DEM (GOP pickup #29)

Michigan 15: Dingell (D) > Steele (R)

Mississippi 01: Childers (D) < Nunnelee (R), 226-208-1 DEM (GOP pickup #30)

Mississippi 04: Taylor (D) < Palazzo (R), 225-209-1 DEM (GOP pickup #31)

Missouri 04: Skelton (D) > Hartzler (R)

New Hampshire 01: Shea-Porter (D) < Guinta (R), 224-210-1 DEM (GOP pickup #32)

New Hampshire 02: Kuster (D) > Bass (R)

New Jersey 03: Adler (D) < Runyan (R), 223-211-1 DEM (GOP pickup #33)

New Jersey 06: Pallone (D) > Little (R)

New Jersey 12: Holt (D) > Sipprelle (R)

Pennsylvania 03: Dahlkemper (D) < Kelly (R), 222-212-1 DEM (GOP pickup #34)

Pennsylvania 04: Altmire (D) > Rothfus (R)

Pennsylvania 06: Gerlach (R) > Trivedi (D)

Pennsylvania 07: Lentz (D) < Meehan (R), 221-213-1 DEM (GOP pickup #35)

Pennsylvania 08: Murphy (D) < Fitzpatrick (R), 220-214-1 DEM (GOP pickup #36)

Pennsylvania 10: Carney (D) < Marino (R), 219-215-1 DEM (GOP pickup #37)

Pennsylvania 11: Kanjorski (D) < Barletta (R), 218-216-1 DEM (GOP pickup #38)

Pennsylvania 12: Critz (D) > Burns (R)

Pennsylvania 13: Schwartz (D) > Adcock (R)

Pennsylvania 15: Dent (R) > Callahan (D)

Pennsylvania 16: Pitts (R) > Herr (D)

Pennsylvania 17: Holden (D) > Argall (R)

South Dakota 00: Herseth Sandlin (D) < Noem (R), 217-217-1 DEM (GOP pickup #39)

Tennessee 04: Davis (D) < DesJarlais (R), 218-216-1 GOP (GOP pickup #40)

Tennessee 05: Cooper (D) > Hall (R)

Tennessee 06: Carter (D) < Black (R), 219-215-1 GOP (GOP pickup #41)

Tennessee 08: Herron (D) < Fincher (R), 220-214-1 GOP (GOP pickup #42)

Texas 17: Edwards (D) < Flores (R), 221-213-1 GOP (GOP pickup #43)

Texas 23: Rodriguez (D) < Canseco (R), 222-212-1 GOP (GOP pickup #44)

Texas 25: Doggett (D) > Campbell (R)

Texas 27: Ortiz (D) < Farenthold (R), 223-211-1 GOP (GOP pickup #45)

7:30pm – Arkansas

Arkansas 01: Causey (D) < Crawford (R), 224-210-1 GOP (GOP pickup #46)

Arkansas 02: Elliott (D) < Griffin (R), 225-209-1 GOP (GOP pickup #47)

Arkansas 04: Ross (D) > Rankin (R)

8:00pm – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Texas (El Paso area), Wisconsin, Wyoming

Colorado 02: Polis (D) > Bailey (R)

Colorado 03: Salazar (D) < Tipton (R), 226-208-1 GOP (GOP pickup #48)

Colorado 04: Markey (D) < Gardner (R), 227-207-1 GOP (GOP pickup #49)

Colorado 07: Perlmutter (D) > Frazier (R)

Kansas 03: Moore (D) < Yoder (R), 228-206-1 GOP (GOP pickup #50)

Kansas 04: Pompeo (D) > Goyle (R) (See correction at end)

Louisiana 02: Cao (R) < Richmond (D), 227-207-1 GOP (DEM pickup #2)

Louisiana 03: Sangisetty (D) < Landry (R), 228-206-1 GOP (GOP pickup #51)

Minnesota 01: Walz (DFL) > Demmer (R)

Minnesota 06: Bachmann (R) > Clark (DFL)

Minnesota 08: Oberstar (DFL) > Cravaack (R)

Nebraska 02: Terry (R) > White (D)

New Mexico 01: Heinrich (D) < Barela (R), 229-205-1 GOP (GOP pickup #52)

New Mexico 02: Teague (D) < Pearce (R), 230-204-1 GOP (GOP pickup #53)

New Mexico 03: Lujan (D) > Mullins (R)

New York 01: Bishop (D) > Altschuler (R)

New York 02: Israel (D) > Gomez (R)

New York 04: McCarthy (D) > Becker (R)

New York 13: McMahon (D) > Grimm (R)

New York 19: Hall (D) < Hayworth (R), 231-203-1 GOP (GOP pickup #54)

New York 20: Murphy (D) < Gibson (R), 232-202-1 GOP (GOP pickup #55)

New York 22: Hinchey (D) > Phillips (R)

New York 23: Owens (D) < Doheny (R), 233-201-1 GOP (GOP pickup #56)

New York 24: Arcuri (D) > Hanna (R)

New York 25: Maffei (D) > Buerkle (R)

New York 29: DEM vacancy filled by Reed (R), 234-201 GOP (GOP pickup #57)

Rhode Island 01: Cicilline (D) > Loughlin (R), 235-200 GOP (GOP pickup #58) (See correction at end)

Wisconsin 03: Kind (D) > Kapanke (R)

Wisconsin 07: Lassa (D) < Duffy (R), 236-199 GOP (GOP pickup #59)

Wisconsin 08: Kagen (D) < Ribble (R), 237-198 GOP (GOP pickup #60)

9:00pm – Arizona, Idaho (except northern areas), Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah

Arizona 01: Kirkpatrick (D) < Gosar (R), 238-197 GOP (GOP pickup #61)

Arizona 03: Quayle (R) > Hulburd (D)

Arizona 05: Mitchell (D) < Schweikert (R), 239-196 GOP (GOP pickup #62)

Arizona 07: Grijalva (D) > McClung (R)

Arizona 08: Giffords (D) > Kelly (R)

Idaho 01: Minnick (D) > Labrador (R)

Iowa 01: Braley (D) > Lange (R)

Iowa 02: Loebsack (D) > Miller-Meeks (R)

Iowa 03: Boswell (D) > Zaun (R)

Nevada 03: Titus (D) < Heck (R), 240-195 GOP (GOP pickup #63)

North Dakota 00: Pomeroy (D) < Berg (R), 241-194 GOP (GOP pickup #64)

Utah 02: Matheson (D) > Philpot (R)

10:00pm – California, Idaho (northern areas), Oregon, Washington

California 03: Lungren (R) > Bera (D)

California 08: Pelosi (D) > Dennis (R)

California 11: McNerney (D) < Harmer (R), 242-193 GOP (GOP pickup #65)

California 18: Cardoza (D) > Berryhill (R)

California 20: Costa (D) < Vidak (R), 243-192 GOP (GOP pickup #66)

California 44: Calvert (R) > Hedrick (D)

California 45: Bono Mack (R) > Pougnet (D)

California 47: Sanchez (D) > Tran (R)

Oregon 01: Wu (D) > Cornilles (R)

Oregon 04: DeFazio (D) > Robinson (R)

Oregon 05: Schrader (D) < Bruun (R), 244-191 GOP (GOP pickup #67)

Washington 02: Larsen (D) > Koster (R)

Washington 03: Heck (D) < Herrera (R), 245-190 GOP (GOP pickup #68)

Washington 06: Dicks (D) > Cloud (R)

Washington 08: Reichert (R) > DelBene (D)

Washington 09: Smith (D) > Muri (R)

11:00pm – Alaska, Hawaii

Alaska 00: Young (R) > Crawford (D)

Hawaii 01: Djou (R) > Hanabusa (D)

FINAL SCORE: 245 Republicans, 190 Democrats (+66 GOP gain)

Of course, the pickup numbers seen above will not be the order in which the seats switch parties, as the counting of the votes and their duration will likely take around two to three hours to complete. However, I project that between 9:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m., Republicans will take control of the House, and Nancy Pelosi’s reign as Speaker of the House will come crashing down as expected.

As I predicted both in my very brief Senate prospectus yesterday (51-49 DEM), and in today’s complete House prospectus (245-190 GOP), 2010 is indeed a very bad year to be a Democrat, and a joyous time to be a member of the Elephant Stampede, even though I still believe that Republicans still have a lot of proving to do if they are to truly gain back the trust of the American electorate. On the other hand, the Donkey Brigade will take its licks and will try to learn a hard lesson from tonight, which may even include GOP gains in the state legislature and the Governor’s Mansion which could threaten vulnerable Democrats in redistricting.

But one thing is clear: Barack Obama’s days of using the sour mood of the American electorate and economy as an excuse to return America to New Deal-esque solutions are over.

CORRECTIONS: In this list, Pompeo is the Republican in KS-04, NOT Goyle, the Democrat running in the Wichita-centric seat. I also incorrectly projected that there would be a GOP pickup in RI-01. I had actually projected the Democratic candidate (Cicilline) would defeat the Republican challenger (Loughlin) and that there would be no GOP pickup. Much apologies. The final score I projected was 244-191 GOP.

If you thought the House was worth writing home about, the Senate could produce an even more anti-climatic situation on November the 2nd and beyond, since some states extend their counting into several days. But regardless of what 2011 will bring, the Senate races — 37 seats in all — will bring some interesting surprises, and perhaps disappointments, come Tuesday night. The numbers are about even, with 19 seats held by Democrats, 18 by Republicans. For the latter party, it will not be surprising if a supermajority of these seats fall into their hands with a strong anti-incumbent mood, below average support for Obama and his party’s initiatives, and the sentiments of the Tea Party all set to collude.

This is a simple breakdown of how the Senate will turn out tomorrow night:

Solid GOP

Alabama: Republican Richard Shelby > Democrat William Barnes

Arizona: Republican John McCain > Democrat Rodney Glassman

Arkansas: Democrat Blanche Lincoln < Republican John Boozman (GOP pickup, 58-42 DEM)

Georgia: Republican Johnny Isakson > Democrat Mike Thurmond

Idaho: Republican Mike Crapo > Democrat Tom Sullivan

Indiana: Democrat Brad Ellsworth < Republican Dan Coats (Democrat Evan Bayh retiring; GOP pickup, 57-43 DEM)

Iowa: Republican Chuck Grassley > Democrat Roxanne Conlin

Kansas: Republican Jerry Moran > Democrat Lisa Johnston (Republican Sam Brownback retiring)

North Dakota: Democrat Tracy Potter < Republican John Hoeven (Democrat Byron Dorgan retiring; GOP pickup, 56-44 DEM)

Oklahoma: Republican Tom Coburn > Democrat Jim Rogers

South Carolina: Republican Jim DeMint > Green Tom Clements > Democrat Alvin Greene

South Dakota: Republican John Thune unopposed

Utah: Republican Mike Lee > Democrat Sam Granato (Republican Bob Bennett defeated in primary)

Solid DEM

Hawaii: Democrat Daniel Inouye > Republican Cam Cavasso

Maryland: Democrat Barbara Mikulski > Republican Eric Wargotz

New York: Democrat Chuck Schumer > Republican Jay Townsend

Vermont: Democrat Patrick Leahy > Republican Len Britton

Favor GOP

Florida: Republican Marco Rubio > Independent Charlie Crist > Democrat Kendrick Meek (Republican George LeMieux is a placeholder)

Louisiana: Republican David Vitter > Democrat Charlie Melancon

North Carolina: Republican Richard Burr > Democrat Elaine Marshall

Ohio: Republican Rob Portman > Democrat Lee Fisher

Favor DEM

Delaware special: Democrat Chris Coons > Republican Christine O’Donnell (Democrat Joe Biden left to become Vice President; Democrat Ted Kaufman is a placeholder)

New York special: Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand > Republican Joe DioGuardi (Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton is now Secretary of State)

Oregon: Democrat Ron Wyden > Republican Jim Huffman

Leans GOP

Kentucky: Republican Rand Paul > Democrat Jack Conway (Republican Jim Bunning retiring)

Missouri: Republican Roy Blunt > Democrat Robin Carnahan (Republican Kit Bond retiring)

New Hampshire: Republican Kelly Ayotte > Democrat Paul Hodes (Republican Judd Gregg retiring)

Pennsylvania: Democrat Joe Sestak < Republican Pat Toomey (Republican Democrat Arlen Specter defeated in primary; GOP pickup, 55-45 DEM)

Wisconsin: Democrat Russ Feingold < Republican Ron Johnson (GOP pickup, 54-46 DEM)

Leans DEM

California: Democrat Barbara Boxer > Republican Carly Fiorina

Connecticut: Democrat Richard Blumenthal > Republican Linda McMahon (Democrat Chris Dodd retiring)

Tossup

Alaska: Republican Write-In Lisa Murkowski < Republican Joe Miller > Democrat Scott McAdams

Colorado: Democrat Michael Bennet < Republican Ken Buck (GOP pickup, 54-46 DEM)

Illinois: Democrat Alexi Giannoulias < Republican Mark Kirk (Democrat Roland Burris retiring; GOP pickup, 53-47 DEM)

Nevada: Democrat Harry Reid < Republican Sharron Angle (GOP pickup, 52-48 DEM)

Washington: Democrat Patty Murray < Republican Dino Rossi (GOP pickup, 51-49 DEM)

West Virginia: Democrat Joe Manchin > Republican John Raese (Democrat Carte Goodwin is a placeholder)

In full, while it appears that the Republicans will likely come up short on November the 2nd, it does not give Democrats enough comfort food to avoid worrying about 2012. Even if Obama does get reelected in two years, it is likely that the Democrats, who dominate the Class I seats by a 2-1 margin, will lose a couple of seats here and there by then. Don’t be surprised to see Democrats and Republicans serving as committee co-chairs in this chamber, as there is still a faint possibly of a split Senate.

Final stop: The Big List.

To call Pennsylvania a blue state is akin to calling MTV the best network on television (when in fact MTV is the exact opposite by a large margin). Pennsylvania may have gone for Barack Obama in 2008, but its congressional delegation remains notoriously fickle to change. And this year, another longstanding trend is set to take its course again. Every eight years for the past several decades, Pennsylvania has elected a Governor from a different party, and Republican state Attorney General Tom Corbett is favored to defeat Democratic Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato to become the state’s next Governor, succeeding term-limited Democrat Ed Rendell.

And a closely contested Senate battle is ongoing as well, with Democratic congressman Joe Sestak and Republican former congressman Pat Toomey battling it out for the Senate seat being vacated by former Republican-turned Democrat turncoat Arlen Specter, whose defeat proved that switching parties is a textbook example of a career politician. With Republicans on the upswing nationally and poised to take control of the House, almost all of Pennsylvania’s congressional seats are a grab bag in this weak Democratic climate.

District 1 – South Philadelphia along Interstate 95, plus Chester

Democrat Bob Brady is favored to defeat Republican write-in candidate Pia Varma for another term in this heavily Democratic district, centered in southern portions of Philadelphia. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 2 – Western areas of Philadelphia, plus Wyncote

Democrat Chaka Fattah is the favorite to win another term in this heavily African-American district over Republican Rick Hellberg. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 3 – Erie area, plus Butler

Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper picked up this seat in the northwest corner of the state by defeating incumbent Republican Phil English, whose relatively moderate persona was not enough to keep the district in Republican hands. With Pennsylvania evolving into a prime electoral battleground, Dahlkemper is facing a surprisingly tough GOP opponent in wealthy auto dealer and community leader Mike Kelly, one of many car dealership executives and employees running in this election cycle. The freshman Democrat appears to have won the money race with $1.95 million in funds raised compared to her Republican opponent’s $1.13 million.

But Dahlkemper has generally trailed in polling, with the most recent polls putting Kelly up by no less than six points, and it doesn’t help that Dahlkemper was one of several pro-life Democrats who unraveled in the wake of her vote for ObamaCare — a vote the Susan B. Anthony List has since hammered her for. Dahlkemper will pull out all the stops to shore up her base and deliver an upset to win a second term, but that appears unlikely in a district that has gotten used to electing Republicans — former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge represented the district as a pro-choice Catholic Republican in the 1980s and early 90s — and Dahlkemper’s seat is going to be one of the first ones declared a GOP pickup on November the 2nd…and it definitely won’t be the last one. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 4 – North Hills suburbs of Pittsburgh, plus New Castle

Sophomore Democrat Jason Altmire was projected to face a tough race in this north suburban Pittsburgh district that also extends out to parts of the Youngstown area. After all, Altmire voted against ObamaCare and TARP — two votes that would have drawn considerable ire from the Tea Party. But Altmire is now facing a surprise Tea Party primary winner in Republican attorney Keith Rothfus. Altmire has more than doubled Rothfus’ totals in fundraising with $2.3 million compared to Rothfus’ $993K.

Altmire may still lose this race, but he does have enough of a Republican-lite bent to hold what would otherwise be a reliable suburban Republican district, and polling numbers have been more than encouraging for Altmire. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 5 – North central areas (State College, Lock Haven, DuBois, Bradford)

First-term Republican Glenn Thompson will face Democrat Michael Pipe, a young Penn State graduate with a degree in Political Science who would have had some benefit in a district that is home to Penn State’s main campus. But this is a bad year to be a Democrat, and Thompson will carry this district in a walk. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 6 – Northwest Philadelphia suburbs (Phoenixville, Ardmore, Pottstown)

This historically Republican district, in the far northwestern outskirts of Philadelphia, has not been easy territory for Jim Gerlach since he was first elected in 2002. After an abortive bid for Governor earlier in this cycle, the Republican Gerlach is now running for reelection against Democratic physician and Iraq War veteran Manan Trivedi, who has raised over $1.3 million in his bid to unseat Gerlach, one of the most vulnerable Republicans nationwide who is also no slouch in fundraising with over $1.95 million raised as of earlier this month.

But even though Obama won nearly 60% of the vote here in 2008, this is still a wealthy suburban district that is hospitable territory for fiscal conservatives but hostile towards bomb-throwing theocrats and other phony populists, and Gerlach’s 10-point lead in a poll taken just one week ago proves that in this weak climate for the Democrats, Trivedi faces a difficult situation ahead. Prediction: Leans GOP.

District 7 – Western Philadelphia suburbs (Upper Darby, Radnor, King of Prussia)

With Joe Sestak running as the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, this suburban Philadelphia seat – situated on a large chunk of the vaunted Main Line and Delaware County – has become a free-for-all showdown. The race pits Democratic State Representative Bryan Lentz against Republican former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan in a competitive showdown for the suburban Philadelphia seat won by Sestak four years prior. Meehan is a strong fundraiser with nearly $2.6 million raised thus far, well ahead of Lentz’s $1.45 million, and twice as many individual donations as his Democratic counterpart.

In the closing days, Meehan has posted narrow single-digit leads in this race, with the most recent poll from two weeks ago showing around a third of voters undecided. Lentz is sure to benefit from Sestak’s presence on the ticket, but Meehan is riding on momentum from an expected GOP washout next week. Prediction: Tossup.

District 8 – Bucks County

Democrat Patrick Murphy first won this traditionally Republican Bucks County seat in 2006 by narrowly edging Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick, in a seat once thought of as being a lock for the Elephant Stampede. After easily dispatching a dark horse GOP challenger in 2008, Murphy is in the fight of his political life — against none other than Fitzpatrick. Murphy is far ahead of Fitzpatrick in fundraising, with a whopping $3.75 million raised compared to Fitzpatrick’s $1.59 million, and posting a similar lead in individual donations with over $2.72 million raised — well ahead of his own PAC donations.

But for all the money raised thus far, Murphy is struggling in the polls. Murphy has only led in recent Dem internals in contrast to Fitzpatrick’s slight leads in most other recent polls conducted thus far, and the incumbent’s votes for most of the Obamastration’s top priorities (ObamaCare, stimulus, etc.) as well as TARP is not doing him any favors in a suburban Philadelphia district that is now essentially Fitzpatrick’s to lose. Prediction: Tossup.

District 9 – South central areas (including Altoona)

Republican Bill Shuster will cruise to victory over Democrat Tom Conners in this south central PA district. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 10 – Northeast Pennsylvania west and north of Scranton area (Williamsport, Sunbury, Carbondale)

Democrat Chris Carney first came to Congress in 2006 after the district’s GOP incumbent was caught up in a sexual affair scandal, which even included a chilling 911 call and subsequent apology. After benefiting in 2008 from a nasty GOP primary that weakened his opponent, Carney is now facing a very difficult race in 2010 against Republican former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino, who has lagged in fundraising all year with only $549K compared to Carney’s $1.46 million.

But despite a 3-to-1 deficit in the fundraising department, Marino is making up for it with competitive polling numbers — a mix of Carney and Marino leads — that collectively are leaning towards a GOP pickup. Further clouding Carney’s prospects are alleged reports that a number of Catholic hospitals in the district likely closed as a result of ObamaCare, which Carney voted for while representing a district with an above average number of senior citizens. Despite momentum being on Marino’s side, this race is still Carney’s to lose. Prediction: Tossup.

District 11 – Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, plus East Stroudsburg and Hazleton

While most Democrats in districts like this had favorable or better numbers in 2008, veteran incumbent Paul Kanjorski struggled to fend off Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, as pundits even predicted Barletta would pick the seat up in a strong Democratic year. Now it is a strong Republican year, and Barletta is back to make the third time a charm (he also ran in 2002). Kanjorski has only recently posted a lead in a poll, but the poll numbers have otherwise favored Barletta despite a trajectory in the polls that has been trending gradually towards the incumbent.

But despite Kanjorski’s healthy fundraising lead ($1.78 million to his opponent’s $1.03 million), it appears that Kanjorski’s career is fading off into the sunset with just mere days before the election. But then again, Barletta was a slight favorite to win in 2008 and still lost to the incumbent. Prediction: Tossup.

District 12 – Johnstown, southwest corner of state, various Pittsburgh suburbs (Lower Burrell, Washington)

The death of longtime Democratic standard bearer John Murtha gave Republicans a ripe opportunity to pick up this district in and around Johnstown and exurban Pittsburgh, which went from supporting John Kerry in 2004 to backing John McCain in 2008. Despite this, the seat remained in Democratic hands with Mark Critz, a former liaison to Murtha, defeating Republican businessman Tim Burns in a special election to succeed Murtha. Critz and Burns are battling once again, this time for a full congressional term.

So far, the money race belongs to Burns, who raised $2.24 million (around $435K coming from Burns himself) compared to Critz’s $2.04 million. As for polling numbers, they have trended towards Critz recently with the incumbent posting modest single-digit leads over Burns. But this is still a GOP year, and Critz will sweat it out if he is to win a term of his own for the Donkey Brigade. Prediction: Tossup.

District 13 – Northeast Philadelphia and most of Montgomery County suburbs (Willow Grove, Horsham, Lansdale)

Democrat Allyson Schwartz has represented this historically Republican district in the suburbs of Philadelphia since 2004 — the last time the district was even mildly competitive. After winning around two-thirds of the vote in the last two elections, Schwartz now faces a dark horse GOP challenger in Dee Adcock, a wealthy businessman and community activist who has loaned and raised a combined total of $745K in this district that also stretches out to the traditionally Republican northeast side of Philadelphia.

But those numbers still pale in comparison to Schwartz’s $2.7 million, and the only poll taken thus far shows Schwartz well positioned to win a fourth term. But Adcock is nothing like her previous challengers, and Democrats are taking notice of a potential sleeping giant in this district. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 14 – Pittsburgh and immediate eastern suburbs (Penn Hills, West Mifflin)

Democrat Mike Doyle will win another term in this heavily Democratic, Pittsburgh-centric district. Melissa Ann Haluszczak provides the Republican opposition. Prediction: Solid DEM.

District 15 – Lehigh Valley

While most Republicans across the country are boasting of stronger than average reelection chances, Charlie Dent is facing his potentially strongest opponent in 2010. Democrats have recruited Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan to run in this swingy Lehigh Valley district that gave Obama 56% of the vote in 2008. So far, the two have posted interesting fundraising numbers, with Dent at $2.2 million and Callahan at $1.86 million.

But polling numbers have favored Dent so far in this election; a Dem internal showing Callahan down by 2 has been the only poll of note that did not show Dent with a double-digit lead. If this were 2008, Callahan would be poised to pick up this seat in the face of Dent’s vote for TARP — one of 91 Republicans who did cast votes for the unpopular and unconstitutional Wall Street bailout. But this is a year that beams strongly red, and the presence of Dent’s predecessor (Pat Toomey) on the ballot should help. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 16 – Lancaster, Reading and extreme western Philadelphia suburbs (West Chester)

In this Pennsylvania Dutch Country district that extends to the fringes of the Philadelphia suburbs, Republican incumbent Joe Pitts is facing off against Democrat Lois Herr, who is running for the third time and is showing surprising strength in a weak Dem climate. Pitts has outraised Herr with $632K to the Democrat’s $360K, but trails Herr in individual donations with only $233K compared to Herr’s $287K.

Herr’s supporters will point to Pitts’ sponsorship of the anti-abortion amendment that nearly threw the ObamaCare gravy train off its tracks earlier in the cycle, but this is not 2008 and the conservative Pitts represents one of the more historically conservative districts statewide. Herr does have one thing going for her: a recent Dem internal shows Pitts ahead by only seven points, hence the prediction from yours truly. Prediction: Favor GOP.

District 17 – Harrisburg, Lebanon and Pottsville

Veteran Democrat Tim Holden was thought to have a difficult race ahead when Republican State Senator Dave Argall decided to take the plunge and run in this fairly conservative district, centered on the state capital of Harrisburg. But Argall has lagged in fundraising with a paltry $320K compared to Holden’s $1.23 million, and the only poll taken for this race — which showed a 30-point lead for Holden — has not been encouraging. And this is supposed to be a fairly GOP district that narrowly went for John McCain, right? Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 18 – South and west suburban areas of Pittsburgh (Mount Lebanon, Monroeville, Greensburg)

In this fairly wealthy south suburban Pittsburgh district, Republican Tim Murphy is favored to defeat Democratic challenger Dan Connolly, an attorney by trade who to his own credit has managed to break $200K in the fundraising department. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 19 – York and western Harrisburg suburbs, plus Gettysburg

Republican Todd Platts will romp to victory over Democrat Ryan Sanders in this favorably Republican district centered in York. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Redistricting Prospectus

Pennsylvania has been very quiet in the population department for decades, and that trend will continue with the Keystone State expected to lose one congressional seat in the redistricting shuffle. That will leave the state at 18 congressional districts, and if the carving of the state were to be left up to me and not the bureaucrats in Harrisburg, this is where the lines would be drawn:

1. South and Center City Philadelphia including Kensington, plus the southeastern edge of Delaware County around Chester and Darby. (Brady) – nearly 80% Obama, half white, half minority including most of Philadelphia’s Hispanic communities
2. North and West Philadelphia including Chestnut Hill and Olney, plus Cheltenham Township in Montgomery County. (Fattah) – 95% Obama, over 70% African American
3. Northwest corner, including the Erie area and exurbs of Youngstown such as Hermitage and New Castle. (Dahlkemper) – swing district, went narrowly for Obama
4. North Hills suburbs of Pittsburgh, including Moon, McCandless, Ross and Shaler townships, as well as Sewickley, Fox Chapel and Monroeville; also includes Beaver and Butler counties. (Altmire/Rothfus/Kelly) – around 55% McCain
5. North central areas of the state, including State College, Altoona, Lock Haven, Clearfield, Punxsutawney and Bradford. (Thompson/Shuster) – around 55% McCain
6. Outer western Philadelphia suburbs, centered on most of Chester County including West Chester, Kennett Square and Phoenixville, as well as northwest Montco around Royersford, Trappe and Upper Frederick Township and eastern Berks County including Reading, Wyomissing and Kutztown. (Gerlach/Pitts/Trivedi) – around 55% Obama
7. Almost all of Delco and the Main Line suburbs, also encompassing southeast Chesco, southwest Montco, and the Roxborough area of Philadelphia; communities include Exton, Malvern, Chester Heights, Swarthmore, Drexel Hill, Radnor, King of Prussia and Ardmore. (Lentz/Meehan) – 55-60% Obama
8. All of Bucks County and northern edge of MontCo including Pottstown. (Patrick Murphy/Fitzpatrick) – under 55% Obama
9. Much of south central PA, including York, Gettysburg and Chambersburg. (Platts) – under 60% McCain
10. Scranton and Lackawanna County, stretching north and westward to Tunkhannock, Bloomsburg, Shamokin and Williamsport. (Carney/Marino) – swing district, went narrowly for McCain
11. Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, stretching south and eastward to Hazleton, Pottsville and the Poconos. (Kanjorski/Barletta/Argall) – swing district, went narrowly for Obama
12. Most of the Johnstown area, Somerset, and eastern suburbs/exurbs of Pittsburgh including North Huntingdon, Murrysville, Lower Burrell and Latrobe, stretching as far north as Shippenville. (Critz) – nearly 60% McCain
13. Northeast Philadelphia and most of Montco including Jenkintown, Willow Grove, Horsham, Lansdale, Norristown and Souderton. (Schwartz/Adcock) – 55-60% Obama
14. Pittsburgh and southeast Allegheny County including Penn Hills, West Mifflin and McKeesport. (Doyle) – two-thirds Obama
15. The Lehigh Valley, including Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton and East Stroudsburg. (Dent/Callahan) – 55-60% Obama
16. Lancaster, west Berks County including Cumru and Penn townships, and west Schuylkill County including Tremont, Pine Grove and Cressona. (Herr) – around 55% McCain
17. Harrisburg and surrounding areas, including Carlisle, Lower Mahanoy and Lebanon. (Holden) – under 55% McCain
18. South Hills suburbs of Pittsburgh, including Robinson, Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park, plus all of the state’s southwest corner (Washington, Greene and Fayette counties) and southern Westmoreland County including Greensburg and Monessen. (Tim Murphy/Burns) – swing district, over 50% McCain

The two districts dominated by Philadelphia remain relatively unchanged; most African Americans will continue to be represented by Fattah, while working-class whites and Hispanics are stuffed into Brady’s seat in the city’s southern reaches. The southwest Pennsylvania districts will be compacted in and around Pittsburgh, the city itself of which will continue to anchor the 14th. Pittsburgh’s suburbs will be evenly divided: northern suburbs in the 4th, southern suburbs in the 18th, and eastern suburbs and the Johnstown area in the 12th — all of which are more than capable of electing Republicans. However, Tim Murphy and Tim Burns would be stuffed into the same district, and if both men were to win, expect both to clamor for their own separate districts.

Over in eastern PA, the Philadelphia suburbs will be neatly apportioned into four districts, one for each of the four suburban Philadelphia counties. In particular, my prospectus would have the 13th based in Montgomery County and northeast Philadelphia, the 7th encompassing most of Delaware County and the Main Line, the 8th in Bucks County, and the 6th taking in most of Chester County outside of the Main Line plus a significant chunk of Berks County.

North of the Delaware Valley, Scranton’s Lackawanna County (10th) and Wilkes-Barre’s Luzerne County (11th) will get their own separate districts, both of which will stretch towards surrounding, reliably Republican areas that balance out the two cities’ Democratic bent. And while the 15th will have slightly favored Obama based on the 2008 results, it still remains a district anchored in the Lehigh Valley area around Allentown.

Finally, the remainder of the state is neatly packed into five districts covering separate areas of the state. The 3rd will continue to cover Erie as well as the state’s share of the Youngstown media market, while the 5th will now extend into Altoona in addition to covering the state’s favorably Republican north central region. Rounding out the state’s districts, the current 19th will become the new 9th based in York, the 16th will be demographically dominated by Lancaster and all of the Garden Spot of America (Lancaster County, that is), and the 17th will be anchored in the state capital of Harrisburg.

One thing that will not change is the competitiveness of the state. Pennsylvania has been a competitive state for decades and will continue to be one for all eternity. Depending on how popular Republicans are in 2012 compared to this year, Democrats could be held to as few as its three only truly safe seats: the two Philadelphia seats plus the Pittsburgh seat.

The 15 other districts would favor a Republican to one extent or another. In the four suburban Philadelphia seats, a traditional suburban Republican who is fiscally conservative will win over voters, while a Religious Right-style social conservative could be a drawback. The same also holds true for the three suburban Pittsburgh seats, though they would be more socially conservative in comparison to their Philadelphia counterparts.

Republicans looking to attract Reagan Democrats will find success in blue-collar bastions such as the state’s northwest and northeast corners, and conservative Republicans will be guaranteed the support of voters in the two central PA districts and in Lancaster. This leaves the 15th and 17th as true swing districts, with the Lehigh Valley-based 15th being more Democratic and the 17th district in Harrisburg slightly Republican.

Democrats will also find opportunity here as well. Most of the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs are populated by moderates who tend to swing between the two parties, but generally favor pro-business policies and are wary of doctrinnaire liberal Democrats. And while labor unions don’t have the luster they once had in decades prior, they still prove crucial in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre, Erie and other places statewide. Of course, there will also be Democrats who run on platforms different from those of the national party, that are attuned to local concerns such as flood control, agriculture and jobs — concerns that open the eyes of otherwise apathetic voters.

Putting truth to form, Pennsylvania will never be a red state. But it has never been a blue state, either. It will always be a purple state, and don’t be surprised if this state winds up last in the pecking order come 2012.

Next stop: The most exclusive club in the world…

More than just an important cog in the wheel of the Libertarian West, Utah is also one of the most Republican states in the Union. And this year, the national wave that looks to propel the GOP into control of Congress could even leave Utah devoid of a Democrat in its congressional delegation. Republican Governor Gary Herbert is all but favored to hold off Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon in a special election for Governor, (triggered by Jon Huntsman, Jr’s appointment as U.S. Ambassador to China). At the same time, Republican attorney Mike Lee — who defeated longtime GOP Senator Bob Bennett at the state’s GOP convention and eventually won his party’s nod — will easily trounce Democrat Sam Granato to win his first term. And while the state’s lone Democrat in Congress is still favored to some extent, even that Democrat is not safe from the jaws of defeat.

District 1 – Northern third of state (Ogden, Logan, Bountiful, Tooele)

Republican Rob Bishop will win another term in this deeply conservative northern Utah district over repeat Democratic challenger Morgan Bowen. In fact, the district is so staunchly conservative that Bishop doesn’t need to break a sweat despite only raising $224K thus far. Prediction: Solid GOP.

District 2 – Eastern third of state (Salt Lake City, Moab and St. George)

Democrat Jim Matheson has been one of the more conservative Democrats in his caucus, and even opposed ObamaCare to the point where he faced a more liberal primary challenger earlier this year. But dark horse Republican candidate Morgan Philpot is looking to change that in this weak climate for the Democrats. And he will have to act fast: polling numbers are favoring the incumbent, who also has a much larger warchest to campaign on as well ($1.68 million to $259K for Philpot). Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 3 – Central third of state (West Jordan, Provo, Richfield)

After defeating an incumbent Republican in the primary two years ago, freshman GOP representative Jason Chaffetz will easily win a second term over Democratic candidate Karen Hyer. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Redistricting Prospectus

Utah is widely expected to gain a fourth seat in the House, not surprising given that the state has been one of the fastest growing states in the last decade. And given the positions of the incumbents, and growth trends within the state, my own prospectus has Utah’s fourth districts situated like this:

1. Northern parts of the state, including Ogden, Layton, Logan and Brigham City. (Bishop)
2. Centered on Salt Lake City and northern and central Salt Lake County, including West Valley City, Murray and Sandy; only congressional district situated entirely within Salt Lake County. (Matheson, possibly Philpot)
3. Southern and eastern suburban/exurban areas of Salt Lake City, including Provo and all of Utah County, south and southeast Salt Lake County (including Draper and Holladay), and Park City. (Chaffetz, possibly Philpot)
4. Virtually all of central and southern Utah outside of the Wasatch Front, including St. George, Vernal, Cedar City and Tooele, as well as western Salt Lake County including Riverton, West Jordan and Taylorsville. (OPEN, possibly Philpot)

Granted, the redistricting will lead to the creation of a new district centered in Salt Lake City that will likely elect a Democrat in 2012, while at the same time creating a new district that stretches from the remainder of Salt Lake County to the southern end of the state. But overall, barring a mass realignment, Utah can be expected to have a 3-1 GOP delegation when the next election cycle (after this one, of course!) comes to fruition.

Next stop: Pennsylvania.

The glorious islands of Hawaii made up one of Obama’s strongest states in 2008, not surprising given that Obama was born in the Aloha State. And yes, he is a Christian born in Hawaii; I have known this fact well before Obama ran for President as Hillary Clinton would have sabotaged him otherwise. But this year, Hawaii has returned to true form as a Dem-leaning swing state, even though its legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic. Earlier this year, Republicans pulled off a major congressional victory in a special election and are now looking to defend that seat.

That race is not the only one of note here. An increasingly competitive open gubernatorial race — Republican Linda Lingle is stepping aside — has also begun to brew in the final days. In that race, Republican Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona has essentially made the race even against Democratic former Congressman and early favorite Neil Abercrombie, after trailing heavily throughout most of the cycle. Throw in a last-minute Senate race pitting longtime Democrat Daniel Inouye against GOP challenger Cam Cavasso, and even the state that spawned 44 may spawn a different sort of change compared to just two years ago.

District 1 – Honolulu and suburbs

When Neil Abercrombie vacated this seat to focus on his run for Governor, Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou saw a golden opportunity to snag this seat for the Elephant Stampede, and benefited as Democrats splintered their votes between State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former Congressman Ed Case. Now for the general election, Case has stepped aside leaving Hanabusa as the Democrats’ standard bearer in this district centered on Honolulu and its immediate surroundings.

Djou has managed to stay afloat with $2.3 million raised so far compared to Hanabusa’s $2.15 million. Polling has been neck-and-neck, with Djou and Hanabusa posting narrow leads at different times throughout the campaign — the most recent poll shows Djou ahead by three points. It remains to be clear if this really is a fluke election as Democrats will say, or a sign of things to come as Republicans want to project. Prediction: Tossup.

District 2 – Remainder of state

As for the rest of the state, including all of the islands outside of O’ahu, Democrat Mazie Hirono will easily defeat Republican John Willoughby. Prediction: Solid DEM.

Redistricting Prospectus

Hawaii will remain a two-seat state in 2012. And don’t expect much change below:

1. Honolulu and immediate suburbs. (Djou/Hanabusa)
2. The remainder of O’ahu, plus the remaining windward islands (including Hawaii, Kauai and Maui) and all of the leeward islands. (Hirono)

The only differences between 2010 and 2012 will be the political mood, which changes with every passing electoral cycle. If Djou does win his own term, look for Democrats to go all-in for this seat. Otherwise, just sit back, relax, and watch the waves come crashing by.

Next stop: Utah.