The Nifty Fifty House Party 2010 – Part XXVII: Idaho

Earlier today, South Carolina provided a very red outlook for November as the Bullet Train to November entered the second half of its run. In today’s second segment, the train careens to a more definably red state with a different sort of reconciliation.

As with most of its Libertarian West brethren, Idaho has been struggling to cope with double-digit growth patterns that have changed the state’s character in recent years, led by booming suburbs around the Boise area and an influx of West Coast transplants statewide. Like most of the entire region, it trended towards the Democrats in the last two elections, but Idaho still went strongly for John McCain in 2008. The state has elections for Governor and the Class 3 U.S. Senate seat this year, but its respective GOP incumbents, Butch Otter and Mike Crapo, are nonetheless strong favorites for reelection. Only one House seat appears competitive in this heavily Republican state, and it’s not what you may think.

District 1 – Part of Boise and western suburbs (Caldwell) plus Coeur d’Alene and Lewiston areas

The national Democratic tidalwave came to ruby red Idaho in 2008 as Democrat Walt Minnick picked up this smokestack-shaped district from Coeur d’Alene down to much of the Boise area, benefitting from the foibles of freshman Republican Bill Sali. Many thought Minnick would be a one-term wonder. Yet for a Democrat, Minnick has proven to be exceptionally conservative in comparison to the rest of his own caucus. In fact, he has opposed virtually every major initiative of the Obamastration to the point where even a number of Tea Party activists have lent their support to the freshman Democrat, which could explain Minnick’s individual contributions of nearly $1 million raised within his $1.8 million warchest. As for the Republicans, the nominee is a surprise. State Representative Raul Labrador‘s victory in the party’s primary can largely be attributed to the defeat of establishment GOP candidate Vaughn Ward, whose political fortunes imploded in the wake of a plagiarism scandal, in which Ward reportedly described his political manifesto by cobbling together other candidates’ quotes – including those of Barack Obama. Labrador does not have the top-billing of the NRCC that Ward had (he hasn’t even broken $300K in funds raised), and it can be said that a Labrador victory on November the 2nd will be considered a big surprise in this heavily Republican district. Prediction: Favor DEM.

District 2 – Part of Boise, plus Idaho Falls, Pocatello and Twin Falls areas

As for Republican incumbent Mike Simpson, who represents the rest of this state in the Idaho Falls and Twin Falls areas (as well the eastern part of the Boise area), no surprise here: he’s heavily favored over Democratic challenger Mike Crawford. Prediction: Solid GOP.

Redistricting Prospectus

If Idaho continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the country, it just might gain a third congressional district in 2020. But for now, Idaho will remain a two-district constituency, and little change should be expected in this round of redistricting:

1. West side of Boise and western suburbs (Meridian, Nampa) plus Lewiston and Coeur d’Alene. (Minnick/Labrador)
2. East side of Boise, plus Idaho Falls, Pocatello and Twin Falls. (Simpson)

Another small state, another predictable prospectus.

Next stop: New York.