The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLIII: Nebraska

Many can argue that the South is the most strongly Republican region in the country, and Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the country. But in a historical (and perhaps present) context, the Great Plains holds that distinction among regions and Nebraska is one of the cornerstone states of the Elephant Stampede. Despite that, Nebraska has never had an all-Republican delegation (House and Senate) since 1976. And between 1978 and 1996, Democrats have controlled the state’s two Senate seats, save for appointed Republican David Karnes, who served the remaining two years of another Senator’s term during the last two years of the Reagan Administration. This year, the Senator who defeated Karnes in 1988 seeks to reclaim his old job – and old Senate seat – as Democrats look to make the same 2008 noise in 2012 when the state’s electoral votes were split up.

Senate | Favor GOP

The return bid of former two-term Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey comes at the expense of another conservative Nebraska Democrat, two-term incumbent Ben Nelson, whose deciding vote for ObamaCare – the result of the infamous Cornhusker Kickback which would have allowed for Nebraska to attain more generous Medicaid reimbursement – ultimately dragged the popular Democrat down in polls. Nelson’s decision led to Democrats convincing Kerrey to return from New York City where he served as President of The New School, a school noted for its liberal and progressive ranks in the annals of Princeton Review rankdom.

That amount of wasted time back east may have hurt him in the polls against Republican State Senator Deb Fischer, whose endorsement by none other than Sarah Palin catapulted the little-known member of what is popularly known as The Unicameral (due to the Nebraska Legislature containing only one nonpartisan chamber) into the general election, where despite Kerrey’s longstanding recognition in the Cornhusker State, Fischer holds a favorable 16 percent advantage in polling despite being outraised overall in the fundraising department – albeit by a narrow margin as both candidates crossed the $4 million mark. But overall, Fischer is all but certain to secure a Republican sweep of the state’s Senate pairing (and perhaps a sweep of the whole delegation as well).

District 1 | Solid GOP

While not Republican enough to necessarily be considered a lock on paper, this district that covers the state capital of Lincoln as well as the outer fringes of the Omaha television market is a safe seat for incumbent Republican Jeff Fortenberry over Democratic attorney Korey Reiman.

District 2 | Favor GOP

Barack Obama’s coattails in 2008 translated into a rare Democratic victory – and Electoral College split – when he carried this district centered on Omaha and its close-in suburbs. That same year, Republican incumbent Lee Terry faced a close reelection bid just two years after facing a similar situation. In 2010, Terry prevailed amid criticism from some conservative corners in the GOP primary and eventually defeated another top-tier Democratic candidate. In 2012, Democrats will once again attempt to put Terry out of his misery with Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing, who recently secured the endorsement of the Omaha World-Herald and raised a respectable $447K in his bid to become Nebraska’s first African American congressman. While recent polling suggests a competitive race, and given that Terry once again faced conservative primary opposition, the D-Trip has surprisingly not gotten into this race at the Red to Blue level despite the likelihood that this district will be competitive for both parties at the presidential level.

District 3 | Solid GOP

As is the case with most of the Great Plains, this western Nebraska district takes in the state’s remaining, sparsely populated landmass and, much like their counterparts in Oklahoma and Kansas, is fertile Republican territory given John McCain’s 2-1 edge here in 2008. Republican incumbent Adrian Smith is expected to defeat Democratic farmer and retired Air National Guard veteran Mark Sullivan in this rural conservative bailiwick.

President | Mitt Romney (statewide, District 1 and District 3), Tossup (District 2)

Little polling, if any, has been done in this state given that Nebraska is very likely to go for Mitt Romney due to the state’s longstanding Republican tradition. However, Romney is only guaranteed to win four of five electoral votes in this, one of two states that splits its electoral votes by both its statewide results (2 total) and its congressional districts (one apiece). The Omaha-centric 2nd District is the lone exception. With polling generally in line with John McCain’s 2008 result, it will not be surprising to see the 2nd go for Barack Obama just like it did in 2008, and the President does have a reliable ally in iconic Omaha investor Warren Buffett who, despite his father’s record as a conservative Republican congressman in the days after World War II, largely aligns himself with the Donkey Brigade and favors the inheritance tax – opposed by many a conservative. One thing is clear: Mitt Romney will dominate, if not sweep, the state’s five electoral votes.

Current Score

President: Romney 166, Obama 133, Tossup 119. (107 to go)

Senate: 41 Republicans (including Mike Johanns), 34 Democrats, 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 9 Tossups. (14 to go)

House: Elephant Stampede 191, Donkey Brigade 130, Splitsville 21. (93 to go)

Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 22 existing Republicans (including Dave Heineman), 10 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (7 to go)

Next stop: Alaska.