The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLV: Wisconsin

In 2008, John McCain plucked his choice to fill Number One Observatory Circle (home of the Vice President) out of the wide open frontier of Alaska in then-Governor Sarah Palin. In 2012, Wisconsin has filled the same role as a popular budget policy wonk from a swing district in the state’s southeast corner has been tapped to be Mitt Romney’s running mate. The Badger State, for the most part, has been considered a purple state for the longest time – even though Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to snag the state’s ten (then eleven) electoral votes.

However, Wisconsin has generated its share of Republican notoriety over the course of the last two years; the controversial public union bargaining reforms pushed by Governor (and recall survivor) Scott Walker, the rise of former Wisconsin GOP Chairman Reince Priebus to Chairman of the Republican National Committee at the beginning of last year, and now Ryan’s selection as Romney’s choice for Vice President have provided Wisconsin Republicans with plenty of attention. Nonetheless, Democrats have their own plans for 2012, as they try to protect the open seat of a longtime Senator retiring in this election.

Senate | Tossup

Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl, who has been in the Senate since the days of Bush 41, has decided to retire from the Senate at the end of his fourth term. While Kohl has started to shift his focus towards a new arena for his NBA team, the Milwaukee Bucks (to replace the aging Bradley Center that opened the year he was first elected to the Senate), both parties are looking forward to the future, as Republican former Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin battle it out in a race that could be the tipping point in who wins control of the Senate.

So far, Baldwin holds a commanding lead in fundraising, as the woman that could potentially become the first LGBT member of the world’s most exclusive club has raised a total of $11.3 million – nearly double Thompson’s $5.73 million haul – with almost all of Baldwin’s donations coming from individuals. But polling has largely been competitive, albeit with clearly different currents: before the Democratic National Convention the advantage belonged to the elderly former GOP Governor, after it Baldwin largely commanded the art of polling, and in this month the race has been a ping-pong battle between the two. Ultimately, the race (and potentially control of the Senate) may come down to lingering prejudice against sexual orientation (Thompson win) or prejudice against age (Baldwin win) on the part of a few misguided voters, but ultimately the race will hinge on whether or not the Elephant Stampede can add Wisconsin to its ranks.

District 1 | Solid GOP

Notwithstanding the swing condition of his district, Paul Ryan has largely won by significant margins in this competitive southeast district that connects traditionally Democratic blue-collar areas around Kenosha, Racine and Ryan’s hometown of Janesville to heavily Republican suburbs on the southern edges of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties, with Lake Geneva’s Walworth County in the middle of all these areas. Clearly, Ryan has plans for Washington, but Democratic Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban also has plans as well – only in this case Zerban seeks to hand Ryan a pink slip. Still, Zerban’s $2.13 million total haul is only nearly half that of Ryan’s $4.88 million, and polling has largely gone in Ryan’s direction, so it is clearly more accurate to say that Rob Zerban is to 2012 what Texas Congressman Beau Boulter – Lloyd Bentsen’s one-time challenger for the Senate – is to 1988.

District 2 | Solid DEM

The departure of Tammy Baldwin from the House will not necessarily lead to a pendulum swing in this district that Baldwin picked up in 1998, as the district is centered in the state capital of Madison – which anchors what is quite possibly the most liberal metropolitan area in the country without a major professional sports team (though the Big Ten sports teams of the Wisconsin Badgers constitute a major pro presence in their own right). The Democratic candidate, State Representative Mark Pocan, is widely expected to defeat Republican businessman Chad Lee.

District 3 | Solid DEM

In 2010, this district was essentially a battleground, but redistricting has altered its outlook with the Stevens Point area now joining Eau Claire and La Crosse to create what has become a favorably Democratic district – and essentially a safe seat for incumbent moderate Democrat Ron Kind. This year, Kind is favored to trounce retired Army officer and state Veterans Affairs secretary Ray Boland, but in 2014 a Democratic primary challenge in this district may not come across as surprising.

District 4 | Solid DEM

Easily the most Democratic district in the state, this Milwaukee-centric district is expected to give Democratic incumbent Gwen Moore another term in Washington over repeat Republican challenger Dan Sebring.

District 5 | Solid GOP

Veteran Republican Jim Sensenbrenner is heavily favored to defeat Democratic technology professional Dave Heaster in the most heavily Republican district in the state, based in Milwaukee’s western suburbs and also including exurban territory that straddles the Madison and Milwaukee television markets.

District 6 | Solid GOP

Veteran Republican Tom Petri is highly favored to win another term over repeat Democratic challenger Joe Kallas, despite both Barack Obama and John McCain winning 49 percent in 2008 in a district that connects east central Wisconsin and such communities along Lake Winnebago as Oshkosh and Fond du Lac, to a line of communities along Lake Michigan that includes Manitowoc, Sheboygan and now Milwaukee’s northern Ozaukee County suburbs including Mequon.

District 7 | Leans GOP

Sean Duffy was one of the more notable winners of the 2010 Republican wave, as the former Real World contestant picked up a congressional seat long held by retiring Democratic stalwart Dave Obey. This year, Duffy has attracted reality show competition – albeit of a vastly different kind – in former television newscaster and one-time State Senate President Pro Tempore Pat Kreitlow. The race is competitive, but Duffy has more than double Kreitlow’s total fundraising haul while the Democrat touts polls suggesting a close race.

However, Duffy’s advantage largely comes from geography, as the addition of Republican-oriented exurban territory on the fringes of the otherwise Minnesota-dominant Twin Cities area has provided Duffy some relief. Making matters worse for the Democrat, the district is dominated by the Wausau and Duluth television markets – a disadvantage considering Kreitlow delivered his newscasts on the NBC affiliate in the Eau Claire/La Crosse television market – whose broadcast territory is largely in the nearby 3rd. So much for being informative (as opposed to crass).

District 8 | Favor GOP

The home district of the Green Bay Packers has long been viewed as a Republican bulwark at the congressional level, with the Donkey Brigade often failing to gain traction after little more than a few terms here. Freshman Republican Reid Ribble, who defeated the district’s most recent Democratic incumbent in 2010, was thought to have a highly competitive battle for his seat at first, but the news thus far has not been encouraging for Democratic businessman Jamie Wall – despite raising $957K in this relatively affordable region (at least compared to the Milwaukee market), the Republican has amassed over $2 million in total funding and even Wall’s internal polling has failed to signal that Ribble is in serious trouble.

President | Tossup

Wisconsin has been considered a blue state to such an extent that many often forget the successes of Republicans in other statewide races. But this year, Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes are clearly up for grabs, and it may be for reasons other than those associated with Paul Ryan. Between the liberal confines of Madison and Milwaukee and the conservative dominance of the Milwaukee suburbs, how well Mitt Romney stacks up in and around Green Bay, the Fox Cities (Appleton/Oshkosh/Neenah), Eau Claire, La Crosse, the state’s share of the Twin Cities region and Superior may determine who wins the presidency. Because this is a vast constituency that fits the profile of the typical “guns and religion” voter, and given Mitt Romney’s large advantage among rural voters nationally, this large collection of small to mid-sized areas may hold the key to a Wisconsin victory for Republicans – and may seal Mitt Romney’s electoral fate.

Current Score

President: Romney 169, Obama 133, Tossup 129. (94 to go)

Senate: 43 Republicans (including Ron Johnson), 35 Democrats, 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 10 Tossups. (10 to go)

House: Elephant Stampede 197, Donkey Brigade 133, Splitsville 21. (84 to go)

Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 24 existing Republicans (including Scott Walker), 10 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (5 to go)

Next stop: Maryland.