The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLIX: Delaware
It is hard to imagine Ohio being considered anything other than a swing state in a presidential election. But the same also used to be true regarding Delaware, the first state in the Union that at one time often went with the whims of the nation. But thanks to a state Republican Party in disarray, and a political karma that now seems strangely out of balance, but most importantly because of the presence of one particular favorite son, the Elephant Stampede is clearly an afterthought in this state in 2012.
Governor | Solid DEM
Considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, incumbent Jack Markell is heavily favored to defeat Republican businessman Jeff Cragg.
Senate | Solid DEM
Longtime Democratic incumbent Tom Carper is widely expected to win a third term over Republican businessman Kevin Wade.
House | Solid DEM
Freshman Democratic incumbent John Carney, whose statewide jurisdiction was one of the few Democratic pickups in an otherwise GOP-dominated year, is slated to win another term despite his Republican opponent being New Castle County Council President Tom Kovach, who has still managed to raise nearly $200K in funds despite the odds.
President | Solid DEM
This is Biden Country, as Barack Obama and his running mate, former Delaware Senator-turned-Vice President Joe Biden, is widely expected to win the state’s three electoral votes. But whether or not Delaware follows the rest of the nation remains to be seen…
Current Score
President: Romney 177, Obama 146, Tossup 129. (55 to go)
Senate: 45 Republicans, 40 Democrats (including Chris Coons), 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 11 Tossups. (2 to go)
House: Elephant Stampede 213, Donkey Brigade 146, Splitsville 23. (53 to go)
Governors: 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and 3 Tossups, plus 26 existing Republicans, 11 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (1 to go)
Next stop: California.
The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLVIII: Ohio
Between the deeply Democratic, Sandy-battered shores of Maryland and the robust Republican, oil-slickened swamps of Louisiana, there are a handful of states that go the way of the nation every four years. But no state defines the heart of any political campaign more than the Heart Of It All itself. Granted, Ohio has lost significant electoral clout over the years, going from 21 congressional districts the year yours truly was born, to 19 in my grade school years, and then 18 in my high school and college days. Now, Ohio will have only 16 congressional districts, as the state’s electoral votes will stand out as the most important bellwether in this election, an increasingly close Senate race comes to a photo-finish end, and a number of House battles register in the minds of the over 11.5 million residents who are proud to call the Buckeye State home.
Senate | Tossup
When the Bullet Train departed last August, freshman Democrat Sherrod Brown was likely on his way to winning a second term after deposing of a two-term Republican incumbent six years prior; that Republican, Mike DeWine, would go on to become Ohio’s present-day Attorney General after deposing of previous Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray, who later went on to become Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau after a controversial recess appointment. Already, Cordray’s future is up in the air, but the same has increasingly been said about Brown, now facing what has become an increasingly bitter Senate battle against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel.
The battle has both candidates exceeding the $10 million mark: Brown has amassed $18.5 million thus far, almost all of it individual donors, and the same has also been said about Mandel’s nearly $14.5 million. The race is also a battle of two regional candidates from the Cleveland television market, as it pits the Lorain County-based Brown against Mandel, who hails from the more traditionally upper-middle-class suburbs of eastern Cuyahoga County. Thus far, polling has leaned into Brown’s court, but Mandel has a strong chance of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in this election cycle given the situation as it stands.
District 1 | Solid GOP
Steve Chabot has been a veteran of political experiences involving revolution, winning in the 1994 Republican Revolution, losing in the 2008 Obamawave, and regaining his seat in the 2010 Tea Party wave. But the act got old for the Elephant Stampede as a GOP-led redistricting process sent one of Cincinnati’s three solidly Republican Ohio collar counties, in this case Warren County, Chabot’s way, along with the affluent village of Indian Hill and a few other white-collar suburban areas along the northern Hamilton County border, while maintaining Cincinnati’s western neighborhoods and Chabot’s political base in the solidly conservative western Hamilton County suburbs. The result is a safe seat for the longtime, if not uninterrupted, Republican incumbent Chabot over Democratic challenger Jeff Sinnard.
District 2 | Solid GOP
Once upon a time, Democrats were lustful of the possibility of winning the historically Republican, white-collar east Cincinnati district that also covered much of the city’s affluent eastern suburbs. This was the case while completely ignoring two factors: that the Democratic trend was the result of the district’s historical base, once represented by present-day GOP Senator Rob Portman, being wedded to traditionally Democratic territory, and that Portman’s GOP successor Jean Schmidt was not an especially appealing incumbent. Now those worries have disappeared, as conservative physician, one-time Army Reserve combat surgeon and one-time Cincinnati mayoral candidate Brad Wenstrup deposed of Schmidt on the heels of a strong showing in the district’s suburban Cincinnati base in the GOP primary, and Wenstrup is now widely expected to win his first term next week over Democratic retired postal worker William Smith.
District 3 | Solid DEM
Some Republicans complained that the Ohio General Assembly did not do enough to maximize opportunities for their party. However, the lifeboat theory came into play here as this newly-created district centered in almost all of the ever-increasingly Democratic state capitol of Columbus was necessary to shore up vulnerable Republicans in the region. The winner of the high-profile Democratic primary, former State House Minority Leader Joyce Beatty, is strongly favored to become the new district’s first incumbent over Republican Reynoldsburg City Councilman Chris Long, whose city contains some of the few Republican voting blocs in this otherwise Democrat-heavy district.
District 4 | Solid GOP
Still a Republican-oriented district in Northwest Ohio, but now juxtaposed around the communities of Lima, Bucyrus, Tiffin, Norwalk and Elyria, conservative Republican incumbent Jim Jordan is widely expected to defeat Democrat Jim Slone.
District 5 | Solid GOP
Some Democrats believe that this district centered on the state’s northwest corner, including most of the Toledo suburbs as well as Findlay and Bowling Green, stands out as a dark horse district. Indeed, Democratic Lucas County School Board Member Angela Zimmann believes she has a chance against Republican incumbent Bob Latta in this historically Republican, rural-flavored district and has raised an impressive $418K thus far. But despite a rural character and the presence of auto industry workers that would have provided any garden variety Democrat fertile territory for campaigning, the D-Trip is not paying attention to this race and Latta is still the favorite.
District 6 | Tossup
This strippy, historically Democratic district still sits along the state’s rural southeastern edge, largely hugging the state’s border with West Virginia, still contains such small cities and towns as Marietta and Steubenville, and is still your typical Appalachian district – favorably Republican on presidential terms, but very sympathetic to blue-collar Democratic candidates. For freshman Republican Bill Johnson, the path to sophomore status became muddled after the Democratic incumbent he beat in 2010, Charlie Wilson, decided to run to get his old job back.
Need further explanation? In the previous election, Wilson had the edge on fundraising terms as an incumbent, and naturally in this cycle that same advantage now belongs to Johnson. But while polling has leaned towards Johnson as a whole, Wilson’s own internals have given the Democrat the benefit of the doubt. And given what happened to the last Republican to hold this seat in Frank Cremeans, who won it in a similar 1994 wave and lost it after one term to the same incumbent he defeated in the previous cycle, don’t expect to be surprised if Bill Johnson suffers the same fate. In other words, this standard-issue “guns and religion” district will go for Mitt Romney, but may end up slipping out of Republican hands at the congressional level.
District 7 | Favor GOP
Given the slight Republican lean of this district, now centered on Canton and New Philadelphia along with western and southwestern exurbs in Northeast Ohio, many expected a close race to develop for freshman Republican Bob Gibbs. The D-Trip early on promoted the candidacy of Joyce Healy-Abrams, a businesswoman and the sister of Canton Mayor William Healy who hoped to give Gibbs a tough battle this year. But so far, Healy-Abrams’ campaign has failed to catch fire, and the race is still Gibbs’ to lose.
District 8 | Solid GOP
This is the safest district for the GOP in all of Ohio, and it has nothing to do with the fact that the incumbent is Speaker John Boehner. True, Boehner will only be facing a write-in candidate in James Condit Jr., but the district’s complexion of north suburban Cincinnati’s Butler County, the second city of Springfield northeast of Dayton, and a number of rural counties wrapped to the north and west of Dayton is deeply conservative territory to the point where the Donkey Brigade has all but written off the seat a total loss.
District 9 | Solid DEM
Let’s be honest: this is a notable race. But the only reason it is notable is because of two factors, one Democratic, one Republican. The Democratic factor is that this district pitted veteran Democratic incumbents Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich against one another, with the blue-collar, longer-tenured and Toledo-based Kaptur defeating the blue-collar, ultra-liberal and Cleveland-based Kucinich in the Democratic primary. The Republican factor in this very strippy district, bookended by Toledo in the west, the west side of Cleveland in the east, and Sandusky and Lorain in the middle, is that their nominee is former plumbing contractor Samuel Wurzelbacher, also known as Joe the Plumber, who gained national attention in the 2008 presidential election when he confronted a campaigning Barack Obama in his neighborhood regarding his proposed purchase of a plumbing company and his potential tax rate. Joe the Plumber’s individual donations are almost on par with Kaptur’s, but the district is clearly out of reach for the GOP; Kaptur is safe.
District 10 | Favor GOP
Clearly, the D-Trip would have gone gangbusters finding a candidate to run in this now-evenly split 49-49 district (Barack Obama has the edge) now centered in Dayton and Montgomery County and the city’s eastern suburbs in Greene County. It clearly would have become a top priority given that Democratic attorney Sharen Neuhardt has raised enough money to gain the consideration of the D-Trip, as the redistricting process would have pitted Republican incumbents Mike Turner and Steve Austria into a highly competitive battle for their party’s nomination. However, Austria decided to retire instead, while Turner has thus far managed to hold the advantage in this race. Some are suggesting a close race given the district’s competitiveness, but hardly anything recent of note has come about pollwise.
District 11 | Solid DEM
In this the most Democratic district in all of Ohio, based on Cleveland’s heavily African American east side, its favorably Democratic close-in eastern suburbs, and much of the Democrat-friendly city of Akron, incumbent Democrat Marcia Fudge is running unopposed.
District 12 | Solid GOP
For Republican incumbent Pat Tiberi, redistricting has proven to be the gift that keeps on giving, as the once-competitive district now covers Columbus’ northern suburbs (Dublin, New Albany, Delaware County) as well as the cities of Newark, Mansfield and Zanesville, and has morphed into a safe seat for the incumbent over Democratic attorney Jim Reese.
District 13 | Solid DEM
Incumbent Democrat Tim Ryan may not be as notable as a certain other Congressman Ryan, and certainly not as colorful as a certain predecessor of his, but with a district rooted in traditionally Democratic Youngstown, Warren and Akron, he is safe for reelection over Republican physician Marisha Agana.
District 14 | Solid GOP
Like the Dayton-centric 10th district further southwest, this district also split in 2008, only with John McCain still holding the edge as he did in the old incarnation of this district. But in this district that connects Cleveland’s affluent eastern and southeastern suburbs to the state’s extreme northeast corner in Ashtabula, there will be a new Congressman as the surprise retirement of moderate Republican incumbent Steve LaTourette initially threw this seat into chaos upon his announcement. Fortunately, Republicans were successful in finding a replacement as Geauga County Prosecutor Dave Joyce has quickly amassed over $767K in total funds. But those funds won’t necessarily be needed as Joyce is favored to defeat Democratic frequent candidate Dale Blanchard, whose campaign is virtually a lost cause.
District 15 | Solid GOP
After defeating a freshman Democratic incumbent in 2010, prospects for first-term Republican Steve Stivers quickly improved after redistricting mushroomed his swing district into one connecting Columbus’ western and southern suburbs and exurbs (including Upper Arlington and Hilliard) to a wide swath of rural and small-town territory including Wilmington, Circleville, Lancaster and the college town of Athens. It’s only a slight GOP lean, but Stivers has the advantage over Democratic Athens Law Director Pat Lang (and yes, that actually is an elected position).
District 16 | Tossup
The most pivotal race for Congress in perhaps the most pivotal state in the Union will take place in this bipartisan, bi-incumbent showdown between the district’s actual, Republican incumbent Jim Renacci and redistricted Democratic incumbent Betty Sutton. And the battle for this suburban Cleveland and Akron district that narrowly voted for John McCain four years prior is certainly not easy, given its territory in such communities as Cuyahoga County’s Westlake, Parma and Strongsville, Medina County’s Medina and Wadsworth, Wayne County’s Wooster, and several outskirts of Akron including Copley and Green.
The race has gone back and forth, with prognosticators going all over the place – some favoring Renacci, others favoring Sutton. Fundraising has also been very tight, with Renacci and Sutton each past the $2 million mark in total receipts and past the $1 million mark in individual donors. But the ultimate judge of this race may as well be the presidential outcome. If Barack Obama wins the district, Betty Sutton will be coming back. If Mitt Romney ekes out a win here, the freshman Jim Renacci will get a second term.
President | Tossup
As aforementioned earlier in this post, Ohio is clearly The Heart Of It All. And nothing may be more pivotal in this state than how the Electoral College turns out as far as Ohio is concerned. Between the Republican-rich suburbs of Cincinnati, the Obama Republican suburbs around Columbus, spectrum-splattered suburbs of various sorts around Cleveland, the heavily Democratic cores of the aforementioned cities, Dayton’s Democratic bent and its Republican Montgomery County remainder, a large base of “guns and religion” voters along the border with West Virginia, rural Republican bulwarks in Northwest Ohio (with Toledo as an urban Democratic outlier) and a generally hyper-competitive outlook all throughout, not to mention the occasional Romney lead in a sea of otherwise very slight Obama leans, Ohio is all but certain to decide – as it has many times before – the fate of the nation. True, they may not be the ones that put Barack Obama or Mitt Romney over the top, but it is nearly impossible to imagine either candidate winning the White House without Ohio’s eighteen electoral votes.
Current Score
President: Romney 177, Obama 143, Tossup 129. (58 to go)
Senate: 45 Republicans (including Rob Portman), 38 Democrats, 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 11 Tossups. (4 to go)
House: Elephant Stampede 213, Donkey Brigade 145, Splitsville 23. (54 to go)
Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 26 existing Republicans (including John Kasich), 11 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (2 to go)
Next stop: Delaware.
The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLV: Wisconsin
In 2008, John McCain plucked his choice to fill Number One Observatory Circle (home of the Vice President) out of the wide open frontier of Alaska in then-Governor Sarah Palin. In 2012, Wisconsin has filled the same role as a popular budget policy wonk from a swing district in the state’s southeast corner has been tapped to be Mitt Romney’s running mate. The Badger State, for the most part, has been considered a purple state for the longest time – even though Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to snag the state’s ten (then eleven) electoral votes.
However, Wisconsin has generated its share of Republican notoriety over the course of the last two years; the controversial public union bargaining reforms pushed by Governor (and recall survivor) Scott Walker, the rise of former Wisconsin GOP Chairman Reince Priebus to Chairman of the Republican National Committee at the beginning of last year, and now Ryan’s selection as Romney’s choice for Vice President have provided Wisconsin Republicans with plenty of attention. Nonetheless, Democrats have their own plans for 2012, as they try to protect the open seat of a longtime Senator retiring in this election.
Senate | Tossup
Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl, who has been in the Senate since the days of Bush 41, has decided to retire from the Senate at the end of his fourth term. While Kohl has started to shift his focus towards a new arena for his NBA team, the Milwaukee Bucks (to replace the aging Bradley Center that opened the year he was first elected to the Senate), both parties are looking forward to the future, as Republican former Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin battle it out in a race that could be the tipping point in who wins control of the Senate.
So far, Baldwin holds a commanding lead in fundraising, as the woman that could potentially become the first LGBT member of the world’s most exclusive club has raised a total of $11.3 million – nearly double Thompson’s $5.73 million haul – with almost all of Baldwin’s donations coming from individuals. But polling has largely been competitive, albeit with clearly different currents: before the Democratic National Convention the advantage belonged to the elderly former GOP Governor, after it Baldwin largely commanded the art of polling, and in this month the race has been a ping-pong battle between the two. Ultimately, the race (and potentially control of the Senate) may come down to lingering prejudice against sexual orientation (Thompson win) or prejudice against age (Baldwin win) on the part of a few misguided voters, but ultimately the race will hinge on whether or not the Elephant Stampede can add Wisconsin to its ranks.
District 1 | Solid GOP
Notwithstanding the swing condition of his district, Paul Ryan has largely won by significant margins in this competitive southeast district that connects traditionally Democratic blue-collar areas around Kenosha, Racine and Ryan’s hometown of Janesville to heavily Republican suburbs on the southern edges of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties, with Lake Geneva’s Walworth County in the middle of all these areas. Clearly, Ryan has plans for Washington, but Democratic Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban also has plans as well – only in this case Zerban seeks to hand Ryan a pink slip. Still, Zerban’s $2.13 million total haul is only nearly half that of Ryan’s $4.88 million, and polling has largely gone in Ryan’s direction, so it is clearly more accurate to say that Rob Zerban is to 2012 what Texas Congressman Beau Boulter – Lloyd Bentsen’s one-time challenger for the Senate – is to 1988.
District 2 | Solid DEM
The departure of Tammy Baldwin from the House will not necessarily lead to a pendulum swing in this district that Baldwin picked up in 1998, as the district is centered in the state capital of Madison – which anchors what is quite possibly the most liberal metropolitan area in the country without a major professional sports team (though the Big Ten sports teams of the Wisconsin Badgers constitute a major pro presence in their own right). The Democratic candidate, State Representative Mark Pocan, is widely expected to defeat Republican businessman Chad Lee.
District 3 | Solid DEM
In 2010, this district was essentially a battleground, but redistricting has altered its outlook with the Stevens Point area now joining Eau Claire and La Crosse to create what has become a favorably Democratic district – and essentially a safe seat for incumbent moderate Democrat Ron Kind. This year, Kind is favored to trounce retired Army officer and state Veterans Affairs secretary Ray Boland, but in 2014 a Democratic primary challenge in this district may not come across as surprising.
District 4 | Solid DEM
Easily the most Democratic district in the state, this Milwaukee-centric district is expected to give Democratic incumbent Gwen Moore another term in Washington over repeat Republican challenger Dan Sebring.
District 5 | Solid GOP
Veteran Republican Jim Sensenbrenner is heavily favored to defeat Democratic technology professional Dave Heaster in the most heavily Republican district in the state, based in Milwaukee’s western suburbs and also including exurban territory that straddles the Madison and Milwaukee television markets.
District 6 | Solid GOP
Veteran Republican Tom Petri is highly favored to win another term over repeat Democratic challenger Joe Kallas, despite both Barack Obama and John McCain winning 49 percent in 2008 in a district that connects east central Wisconsin and such communities along Lake Winnebago as Oshkosh and Fond du Lac, to a line of communities along Lake Michigan that includes Manitowoc, Sheboygan and now Milwaukee’s northern Ozaukee County suburbs including Mequon.
District 7 | Leans GOP
Sean Duffy was one of the more notable winners of the 2010 Republican wave, as the former Real World contestant picked up a congressional seat long held by retiring Democratic stalwart Dave Obey. This year, Duffy has attracted reality show competition – albeit of a vastly different kind – in former television newscaster and one-time State Senate President Pro Tempore Pat Kreitlow. The race is competitive, but Duffy has more than double Kreitlow’s total fundraising haul while the Democrat touts polls suggesting a close race.
However, Duffy’s advantage largely comes from geography, as the addition of Republican-oriented exurban territory on the fringes of the otherwise Minnesota-dominant Twin Cities area has provided Duffy some relief. Making matters worse for the Democrat, the district is dominated by the Wausau and Duluth television markets – a disadvantage considering Kreitlow delivered his newscasts on the NBC affiliate in the Eau Claire/La Crosse television market – whose broadcast territory is largely in the nearby 3rd. So much for being informative (as opposed to crass).
District 8 | Favor GOP
The home district of the Green Bay Packers has long been viewed as a Republican bulwark at the congressional level, with the Donkey Brigade often failing to gain traction after little more than a few terms here. Freshman Republican Reid Ribble, who defeated the district’s most recent Democratic incumbent in 2010, was thought to have a highly competitive battle for his seat at first, but the news thus far has not been encouraging for Democratic businessman Jamie Wall – despite raising $957K in this relatively affordable region (at least compared to the Milwaukee market), the Republican has amassed over $2 million in total funding and even Wall’s internal polling has failed to signal that Ribble is in serious trouble.
President | Tossup
Wisconsin has been considered a blue state to such an extent that many often forget the successes of Republicans in other statewide races. But this year, Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes are clearly up for grabs, and it may be for reasons other than those associated with Paul Ryan. Between the liberal confines of Madison and Milwaukee and the conservative dominance of the Milwaukee suburbs, how well Mitt Romney stacks up in and around Green Bay, the Fox Cities (Appleton/Oshkosh/Neenah), Eau Claire, La Crosse, the state’s share of the Twin Cities region and Superior may determine who wins the presidency. Because this is a vast constituency that fits the profile of the typical “guns and religion” voter, and given Mitt Romney’s large advantage among rural voters nationally, this large collection of small to mid-sized areas may hold the key to a Wisconsin victory for Republicans – and may seal Mitt Romney’s electoral fate.
Current Score
President: Romney 169, Obama 133, Tossup 129. (94 to go)
Senate: 43 Republicans (including Ron Johnson), 35 Democrats, 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 10 Tossups. (10 to go)
House: Elephant Stampede 197, Donkey Brigade 133, Splitsville 21. (84 to go)
Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 24 existing Republicans (including Scott Walker), 10 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (5 to go)
Next stop: Maryland.
The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLIV: Alaska
While it is true that Nebraska may look wide open given that half of its population is almost entirely concentrated in the orbit of Omaha, one particular state swamps even the entire heartland of America. That state, Alaska, boasts of an even greater disparity as the lion’s share of Alaskans are almost entirely concentrated in and around Anchorage, with the rest of the state’s population very sparsely spread out – some areas of the state, particularly in the Bush, are not even interconnected to North America’s road system and don’t even call a television market home. As such, it can be said the role of an Alaskan member of Congress from either house is very significant, given that steadfast opposition to “bringing home the bacon” can easily land an otherwise highly acceptable candidate elsewhere in a world of electoral trouble. In the post-Sarah Palin Alaska, though, the traditionally Republican state offers little incentive for the Donkey Brigade to gain traction against the man considered Alaska’s Third Senator.
House | Solid GOP
Since the days of disco and waterbeds, one constant has remained: statewide incumbent Don Young. And the veteran Republican is all but certain to remain in Congress, heavily favored to defeat Democratic State Representative Sharon Cissna.
President | Mitt Romney
The Last Frontier, fittingly enough, will close its polls last – and the results will not even be close. The Elephant Stampede, led by one Mitt Romney, will still rule the day in this very vast, very sparse Last Frontier.
Current Score
President: Romney 169, Obama 133, Tossup 119. (104 to go)
Senate: 42 Republicans (including Lisa Murkowski), 35 Democrats (including Mark Begich), 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 9 Tossups. (12 to go)
House: Elephant Stampede 192, Donkey Brigade 130, Splitsville 21. (92 to go)
Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 23 existing Republicans (including Sean Parnell), 10 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (6 to go)
Next stop: Wisconsin.
The 2012 Bullet Train to November – Part XLIII: Nebraska
Many can argue that the South is the most strongly Republican region in the country, and Alabama is one of the most Republican states in the country. But in a historical (and perhaps present) context, the Great Plains holds that distinction among regions and Nebraska is one of the cornerstone states of the Elephant Stampede. Despite that, Nebraska has never had an all-Republican delegation (House and Senate) since 1976. And between 1978 and 1996, Democrats have controlled the state’s two Senate seats, save for appointed Republican David Karnes, who served the remaining two years of another Senator’s term during the last two years of the Reagan Administration. This year, the Senator who defeated Karnes in 1988 seeks to reclaim his old job – and old Senate seat – as Democrats look to make the same 2008 noise in 2012 when the state’s electoral votes were split up.
Senate | Favor GOP
The return bid of former two-term Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey comes at the expense of another conservative Nebraska Democrat, two-term incumbent Ben Nelson, whose deciding vote for ObamaCare – the result of the infamous Cornhusker Kickback which would have allowed for Nebraska to attain more generous Medicaid reimbursement – ultimately dragged the popular Democrat down in polls. Nelson’s decision led to Democrats convincing Kerrey to return from New York City where he served as President of The New School, a school noted for its liberal and progressive ranks in the annals of Princeton Review rankdom.
That amount of wasted time back east may have hurt him in the polls against Republican State Senator Deb Fischer, whose endorsement by none other than Sarah Palin catapulted the little-known member of what is popularly known as The Unicameral (due to the Nebraska Legislature containing only one nonpartisan chamber) into the general election, where despite Kerrey’s longstanding recognition in the Cornhusker State, Fischer holds a favorable 16 percent advantage in polling despite being outraised overall in the fundraising department – albeit by a narrow margin as both candidates crossed the $4 million mark. But overall, Fischer is all but certain to secure a Republican sweep of the state’s Senate pairing (and perhaps a sweep of the whole delegation as well).
District 1 | Solid GOP
While not Republican enough to necessarily be considered a lock on paper, this district that covers the state capital of Lincoln as well as the outer fringes of the Omaha television market is a safe seat for incumbent Republican Jeff Fortenberry over Democratic attorney Korey Reiman.
District 2 | Favor GOP
Barack Obama’s coattails in 2008 translated into a rare Democratic victory – and Electoral College split – when he carried this district centered on Omaha and its close-in suburbs. That same year, Republican incumbent Lee Terry faced a close reelection bid just two years after facing a similar situation. In 2010, Terry prevailed amid criticism from some conservative corners in the GOP primary and eventually defeated another top-tier Democratic candidate. In 2012, Democrats will once again attempt to put Terry out of his misery with Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing, who recently secured the endorsement of the Omaha World-Herald and raised a respectable $447K in his bid to become Nebraska’s first African American congressman. While recent polling suggests a competitive race, and given that Terry once again faced conservative primary opposition, the D-Trip has surprisingly not gotten into this race at the Red to Blue level despite the likelihood that this district will be competitive for both parties at the presidential level.
District 3 | Solid GOP
As is the case with most of the Great Plains, this western Nebraska district takes in the state’s remaining, sparsely populated landmass and, much like their counterparts in Oklahoma and Kansas, is fertile Republican territory given John McCain’s 2-1 edge here in 2008. Republican incumbent Adrian Smith is expected to defeat Democratic farmer and retired Air National Guard veteran Mark Sullivan in this rural conservative bailiwick.
President | Mitt Romney (statewide, District 1 and District 3), Tossup (District 2)
Little polling, if any, has been done in this state given that Nebraska is very likely to go for Mitt Romney due to the state’s longstanding Republican tradition. However, Romney is only guaranteed to win four of five electoral votes in this, one of two states that splits its electoral votes by both its statewide results (2 total) and its congressional districts (one apiece). The Omaha-centric 2nd District is the lone exception. With polling generally in line with John McCain’s 2008 result, it will not be surprising to see the 2nd go for Barack Obama just like it did in 2008, and the President does have a reliable ally in iconic Omaha investor Warren Buffett who, despite his father’s record as a conservative Republican congressman in the days after World War II, largely aligns himself with the Donkey Brigade and favors the inheritance tax – opposed by many a conservative. One thing is clear: Mitt Romney will dominate, if not sweep, the state’s five electoral votes.
Current Score
President: Romney 166, Obama 133, Tossup 119. (107 to go)
Senate: 41 Republicans (including Mike Johanns), 34 Democrats, 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, 9 Tossups. (14 to go)
House: Elephant Stampede 191, Donkey Brigade 130, Splitsville 21. (93 to go)
Governors: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats and 3 Tossups, plus 22 existing Republicans (including Dave Heineman), 10 existing Democrats and 1 existing Independent. (7 to go)
Next stop: Alaska.
Kyle Stanley
Kyle Stanley's Perspectives 