The Nifty Fifty House Party 2010 – Part XXVIII: New York
Tuesday ended with Idaho providing little in the way of surprises and notable showdowns in this year’s battle for the House. Today, the Bullet Train to November rolls into a state which has experienced the worst brunt of apportionment shifts past and present, and which may produce one of the most robust election slates of this cycle.
If any state has been ground zero for GOP establishment irrationality, bureaucratic nightmares and population exodus to other states, all signs in recent years have pointed to New York. Once having sent 45 House representatives to Washington, it has lost a third of its districts over the years as a great many of its residents moved to other states to escape a bureaucratic nightmare in Albany, compounded by tax burdens in the Tri-State area and job losses upstate. It may explain why Governor David Paterson is not seeking reelection in November, as the Empire State’s continuing woes combined with a weak Democratic environment would have buried the Democrat in the process. But the GOP is not necessarily flying high here at this point, which is no great surprise as New York’s own GOP establishment is perhaps the worst in the nation – the reasons why too numerous to state on here.
This year, a glamour name has emerged in the Democratic nomination for Governor in state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former Governor Mario Cuomo. The younger Cuomo, whose brother Chris is a well-respected journalist at ABC News, has generally led in the polls since before he first entered the race. However, the surprise GOP nominee for the Governor’s Mansion, real estate developer and Tea Party favorite Carl Paladino, has proven to be a far more competitive candidate than orginally thought and has reduced Cuomo’s once expansive lead to between single digits and low teens (depending on where the poll is coming from).
The Senate seat once held by Hillary Clinton is in even more peril, as appointed Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is now fighting to stave off an emerging challenge from former GOP Congressman Joe DioGuardi, a proud “Congressional Credit Card” carrier whose daughter is former American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi. The reason? Gillibrand’s once sizable lead has dropped following the primary. And while Chuck Schumer is a strong favorite to win the regular Class 3 Senate election, even some Republicans have weighted the chances of its candidate, Jay Townsend, in November. For the House, at least a third, if not half, of the state’s 29 congressional seats are in play, and with all but two of them held by Democrats, a good chance exists that one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country could also see one of the largest numerical GOP gains in this anti-Obama, anti-Democratic, anti-establishment midterm election.
Out here in the Hamptons lies one of the top takeover targets of the 2010 cycle. Democrat Tim Bishop has represented this independent-minded Long Island seat since 2002, and has largely been shored up by tepid GOP recruiting years in 2004, 2006 and 2008. But this year, Bishop is swimming in rough waters. Republican entrepreneur Randy Altschuler has emerged as one of the better-funded non-incumbent candidates in this cycle, with nearly $3 million (a good portion of it coming out of Altschuler’s own pockets) raised compared to Bishop’s haul of over $1.88 million. The last time a serious poll was done here, in January, Altschuler was trailing by a mere two points at a time when GOP prospects were dimmer. To counter potential losses, Bishop has responded with attacks calling Altschuler by the term “outsourcing pioneer”. But Bishop knows anything will have to do when a swing district in the mold of his becomes host to a hotly contested midterm battle royale. Complicating things for Altschuler: the Taxpayers Party ballot line contains Chris Cox, a Republican whose grandfather is the late former President Richard Nixon. Prediction: Tossup.
Veteran Democrat Steve Israel has experienced little trouble in this Long Island seat dominated by western Suffolk County since his first election 10 years ago. Not much difference in the outcome should be expected this year, but talk radio commentator John Gomez is guaranteed to run a strong dark horse campaign on historically Republican Long Island. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Peter King is Long Island’s only Republican congressman. And he is heavily favored for reelection over Democratic candidate Howard Kudler. King has the backing of the Conservative and Independence slates. Prediction: Solid GOP.
Since picking up this historically Republican seat in 1996, Democrat Carolyn McCarthy has generally had easy reelection bids. And it looked like the same sort of result would emerge again this year. But while Fran Becker has entered later than most other GOP congressional candidates nationally, the Nassau County Legislator whose grandfather was a former Congressman from this area may produce one of the more monumental upsets of the 2010 cycle. But next to nothing in terms of polling or even fundraising noise has emerged thus far. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Veteran Democrat Gary Ackerman is a heavy favorite for reelection to this Queens-centric seat over Republican physician James Milano. Ackerman also has the backing of the Independence and Working Families tickets, while Milano also has Conservative backing. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Gregory Meeks is heavily favored for reelection in this majority African American district over Republican Asher Taub. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Incumbent Democrat Joe Crowley is projected to defeat Republican Ken Reynolds. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Longtime incumbent Jerrold Nadler has the backing of his fellow Democrats in this Democratic stronghold in the heart of New York City, and is a strong favorite over Republican/Conservative challenger Susan Kone. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Anthony Weiner is heavily favored for reelection over Republican Bob Turner, who to his own credit has surpassed six figures in funds raised. Barack Obama won 55% of the vote here in 2008, a year in which this seat was not targeted in any way, shape or form. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Incumbent Democrat Ed Towns is a strong favorite for reelection over Republican challenger Diana Muniz. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Another strong Democratic district. Incumbent Yvette Clarke will steamroll over Republican Hugh Carr. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Nydia Velazquez has no Republican challenger. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Mike McMahon‘s pickup in 2008 was perhaps the most widely expected, due to the shocking retirement of GOP incumbent Vito Fossella and the Elephant Stampede’s problems in recruiting a replacement candidate. Republicans hope to take back the seat in 2010 with Republican and Conservative candidate Mike Grimm, a USMC veteran, former FBI officer and green entrepreneur backed by John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Hampering Grimm are his fundraising totals: $795K to $2.1 million for McMahon. Helping Grimm is a poor year for Democrats: the Staten Island-centric district that voted for John McCain would be considered among the more vulnerable districts nationwide. The missing links? Hardly any credible polling data has emerged, other than a poll that heavily favored McMahon from last April. Prediction: Leans DEM.
This is the stereotypical “silk stocking” district on the East Side of Manhattan that also includes Central Park and a northwestern scrap of Queens. Democrat Carolyn Maloney easily fended off a high-dollar challenge in her primary, and is now heavily favored to defeat Republican Ryan Brumberg. Brumberg is no token candidate, though, as his funds raised amount to nearly $150K (still pale in comparison to Maloney’s $2.76 million) and the district has an ancestral Republican bent. Prediction: Solid DEM.
It is hard to imagine a more corrupt pol in America than Charlie Rangel. The longtime Democrat from Harlem is a national disgrace who managed to survive a bruising Democratic primary due to his massive warchest of $2.66 million. And he will be heavily favored for reelection in this 90%+ Obama district over Republican/Conservative candidate Michel Faulkner, a pastor whose past included a stint as a player for the New York Jets for one season when the team was based at Shea Stadium. Prediction: Solid DEM.
This solidly Democratic district in the Bronx is no match for Democratic incumbent Jose Serrano over Republican Frank Della Valle. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Eliot Engel is favored for reelection in this outer urban/inner suburban New York City district over Republican/Conservative candidate York Kleinhandler. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Democrat Nita Lowey, who also has the backing of the Independence and Working Families parties, is a strong favorite for reelection to this Westchester County district over Republican/Conservative candidate Jim Russell, even though Republicans did have their chances to field a potentially stronger candidate that would get noticed by the NRCC. Prediction: Solid DEM.
John Hall has been a cog in the wheel of Nancy Pelosi’s disastrous agenda, who despite his liberal voting record managed to dodge a dark horse challenge in 2008 in the face of past attempts to field a stronger GOP candidate that failed, benefiting the Democrat in the process. The historically Republican suburban New York City district is now one of the top seats likely to flip to Republican red in November with polls showing his GOP challenger, ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth leading by two points in a poll done for the liberal Daily Kos blog – not good considering Hall’s party affiliation and Daily Kos’ target audience. Hayworth has raised $1.36 million compared to Hall’s $1.25 million, but Hall’s individual haul of $795K bests Hayworth’s $741K, with both having padded their results with candidate loans (Hayworth) and PAC donors (Hall). Still, while both candidates have their traditional fusion backers (Working Families for Hall, Conservatives for Hayworth), Hayworth has snagged the Independence Party line. Not good if you’re trying to prove you’re “Still the One” in a red year. Prediction: Tossup.
What used to be Kirsten Gillibrand’s congressional seat in suburban Albany and the upper Hudson Valley fell into the hands of a surprise winner last year, with Democrat Scott Murphy beating back a highly touted GOP candidate with significant legislative experience. Still, don’t expect an easy race for a full term (Murphy is fulfilling Gillibrand’s unexpired one). Republican retired Army officer Chris Gibson has raised in the high six-figures and has polled reasonably well despite Murphy’s massive haul that amounts to a whopping $4.4 million. Despite votes in favor of many of the Democrats’ initiatives, Murphy’s haul is all but certain to come in handy in this historically Republican district, and he will likely need all of it to stay afloat. Prediction: Leans DEM.
Freshman Democrat Paul Tonko is favored to win in this traditionally Democratic Capital District seat over Republican Ted Danz. Prediction: Solid DEM.
Maurice Hinchey is one of the most staunchly liberal Democrats in the House, even though this district is far more moderate in comparison to most other liberal-held districts. Republican candidate George Phillips, who also has the backing of Conservatives, has proven to be a fairly strong dark horse candidate in this climate, with one recent internal poll showing Hinchey leading Phillips by only seven points, 44 to 37. This once sleepy race is now likely to become a bellwether of what happens on November the 2nd. An independent poll would be nice, though. Prediction: Favor DEM.
For decades, this Watertown-centric district almost exclusively elected Republicans; parts of the district had never been represented by a Democratic congressman. That all changed when Democratic incumbent Bill Owens won this seat in a special election to replace Secretary of the Army John McHugh. But the district is not necessarily trending Democratic. Instead, Owens picked up the seat as Republican voters – and even members of the GOP establishment itself – went from supporting hand-picked GOP nominee and State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava to backing the more conservative CPA Doug Hoffman, the candidate of the appropriately named Conservative Party (On a personal note, if I were a constituent of this district, I would have undoubtedly supported Hoffman; any GOP organization that hand picks its official party nominee for a congressional seat epitomizes the notion of failure). Scozzafava would eventually drop out of the race and throw her endorsement to Owens who ended up winning, with Scozzafava’s numbers being the difference between Congressman Owens and Congressman Hoffman. Owens quickly became a top target overnight with his initial vote in favor of a draft health care plan shortly after being sworn in, but his chances of reelection are relatively stable due to Hoffman’s snagging of the Conservative nod, but not the Republican one which went to investment banker Matt Doheny (the latter also has the Independence Party line). Each of the three candidates have raised around $6 million combined, with Hoffman at $2.25 million, Owens at $2.23 million, and Doheny at $1.86 million. And this is not a major market district. Owens may be vulnerable, but even one GOP poll shows the Democrat with a tiny lead. Prediction: BIG Tossup.
Sophomore Democrat Mike Arcuri had a scare in 2008, as even a strong Democratic year didn’t shield Arcuri from falling in danger of losing his seat. Construction executive Richard Hanna nearly defeated the former District Attorney of Utica’s Oneida County two years ago and is back again for a rematch. This time, Arcuri is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country. While Arcuri has a fundraising edge of $1.27 million to Hanna’s $778K and one poll has shown the Democrat with an eight-point lead, a large portion of Arcuri’s funds have come from PAC donors and the same polling outfit had many other results that were skewed more towards Democratic candidates around the same period (I know this from a check of other statewide polls conducted by that firm recently). Still, this Upstate district has traditionally favored Republicans and with the GOP suddenly seeing more competitive showdowns for its statewide top of the ticket, Arcuri will still have to prove that he is capable of a third term, and he will have to make do without the Independence Party line (which Hanna won along with the Conservative line). Prediction: Tossup.
Yet another historically Republican district in upstate New York, this time in the Syracuse and east suburban Rochester areas, where freshman Democrat Dan Maffei propelled to victory after longtime Republican Jim Walsh passed on another term. This year, Maffei has amassed $2.27 million, a total that far eclipses the $339K haul of his GOP challenger, assistant State Attorney General Ann Marie Buerkle. However, Maffei is not only running in a weak Democratic year, but recent polling has suggested a competitive race with a GOP internal showing Maffei with only a 3-point advantage. Upstate New York is trending strongly Republican as of late in the races for Governor and U.S. Senate, and their late surges could make Maffei a one-term wonder. And he’ll have to prove otherwise without the backing of the Independence Party which went to Buerkle. Prediction: Leans DEM.
This race was competitive in 2006 and 2008, but this time around Republican Chris Lee is a heavy favorite for a second term over Democrat Philip Fedele. Prediction: Solid GOP.
Democrat Brian Higgins will win another term in this district that covers southern portions of the Buffalo area. Republican Lenny Roberto will try. Prediction: Solid DEM.
This linear district was designed to elect a Democrat to a strongly safe seat (the surrounding districts were all represented by Republicans after the 2002 elections). That Democrat, longtime congresswoman Louise Slaughter, is herself heavily favored for reelection over Republican Jill Rowland. Prediction: Solid DEM.
As with virtually all of upstate New York, this historically GOP seat fell to the Donkey Brigade in 2008, with Republican Randy Kuhl losing a bid for a third term to Democrat Eric Massa. But not only has Massa proven to be a one-term wonder…he’s no longer in office thanks to a cancer diagnosis and allegations of sexual harassment. And this is one seat that is all but certain to flip to the GOP side. Former Corning Mayor Tom Reed is now in the driver’s seat to take back the district for the GOP, and has both cash and polling advantages over Democrat Matt Zeller, a veteran of the Afghan War. Prediction: Favor GOP.
Recently, projections have emerged in which New York will lose two congressional seats in the next round of redistricting. That news came after I did the prospectus for the future Empire State delegation, which amounts to 28 districts. A lot can change between now and 2012, but these districts would have created a number of interesting opportunities:
- Suffolk County towns of Shelter Island, East Hampton (Montauk, East Hampton), Southold, Southampton (The Hamptons, Shinnecock Hills), Riverhead, Brookhaven (Coram, Centereach, Port Jefferson, Patchogue, Mastic), and eastern and southern edge of Islip (Oakdale, Holbrook). (Bishop/Gomez) – Swing district
- Suffolk County towns of Smithtown (Fort Salonga, Hauppauge, St. James), Huntington (Northport, Commack, Melville), western and central Islip (Bay Shore, Brentwood, Ronkonkoma), and northern Babylon (Deer Park). (Israel/Altschuler) – Swing district
- Nassau County city of Glen Cove, Oyster Bay (Syosset, Bethpage, Massapequa) and eastern part of Hempstead (Merrick, Seaford, Levittown), plus part of the Suffolk County town of southern Babylon (Lindenhurst, Amityville). (King) – Swing district
- Nassau County towns of North Hempstead (Port Washington, Manhasset, Mineola, Westbury) and west central and central parts of Hempstead (Garden City, Rockville Centre, the Five Towns/Hewletts), plus the city of Long Beach. (McCarthy/Ackerman/Becker) – Swing district, leaned Obama
- Northeast and north central Queens, including Fresh Meadows, Bayside, Flushing and Forest Hills. (Weiner?) – Half white, one quarter Asian, went at least 60% Obama
- Southeast Queens (Jamaica, Cambria Heights, Far Rockaway) plus western fraction of the Nassau County town of Hempstead (Elmont). (Meeks) – Majority African American, around 90% Obama
- Northern portion of Queens around Jackson Heights, plus northern and eastern portions of the Bronx (Edenwald, Pelham Bay, Co-op City, Throggs Neck). (Crowley) – at least one-third Hispanic, around one-quarter white and African American, at least 80% Obama
- Lower and west side Manhattan (Morningside Heights, Upper West Side, Chelsea, Financial District), plus northwest corner of Brooklyn (Red Hook, Brooklyn Heights). (Nadler) – around two-thirds white, overwhelmingly Democratic
- South Brooklyn (Coney Island, Gravesend, Borough Park, Sheepshead Bay, Bergen Beach) plus southwestern edge of Queens (Belle Harbor, Howard Beach). (Weiner?) – at least 70% white, 55% for McCain
- North central and northeast Brooklyn (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Cypress Hills), plus west central Queens (Ozone Park). (Towns) – around 40% African American and 30% Hispanic, around 90% Obama
- Central Brooklyn, including Crown Heights, Prospect-Lefferts Gardens, and Flatbush. (Clarke) – over two-thirds African American, at least 90% Obama
- Northwest and northern edge of Brooklyn, including Sunset Park, Park Slope and Williamsburg, plus Manhattan’s Lower East Side. (Velazquez) – around 40% Hispanic and one quarter white, with Asian and African American populations in the teens, nearly 90% for Obama
- Staten Island plus southwest corner of Brooklyn (Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, Fort Hamilton). (McMahon/Grimm) – around 70% white, swing district
- Upper East Side of Manhattan (including Central Park and Times Square) and northwest Queens (Astoria, Long Island City). (Maloney) – majority white with at least 10% Hispanics and Asians each, around three-quarters for Obama
- Northern portions of Manhattan, including Harlem, plus a western portion of the Bronx (Concourse). (Rangel) – majority Hispanic, at least one-third African American, around 95% Obama
- Central and southern portions of the Bronx, including Fordham, Soundview, Hunts Point, Morrisania and Mott Haven. (Serrano) – nearly two-thirds Hispanic, at least one-quarter African American, around 95% Obama
- Northwest corner of the Bronx (Kingsbridge, North Riverdale), plus southern Westchester County (Yonkers, New Rochelle, Mount Vernon, White Plains, Dobbs Ferry). (Engel) – around half white with significant Hispanic and African American populations, around two-thirds for Obama
- Northern and eastern Westchester County (Mamaroneck, Rye, Ossining, Peekskill, Mount Kisco), plus Putnam and Dutchess counties (except for Beacon and Poughkeepsie). (Lowey/Hall/Hayworth) – swing district, leaned toward Obama
- Orange and Rockland counties, plus Beacon in Dutchess County. (OPEN) – swing district
- Counties of Broome, Chenango, Otsego, Delaware, Sullivan, and Ulster, plus parts of Greene and Dutchess; includes Binghamton, Cooperstown, Kingston and Poughkeepsie. (Hinchey/Phillips/Hanna) – went under 60% for Obama
- Much of the Capital District, including Albany, Schenectady, Troy, Amsterdam and Johnstown. (Tonko) – went under 60% for Obama; Albany itself votes overwhelmingly Democratic
- Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls, much of the Adirondack Mountains, Plattsburgh, and an eastern portion of the upper Hudson Valley. (Murphy/Owens/Gibson/Hoffman) – swing district, leaned towards Obama
- Utica and Watertown areas. (Arcuri/Doheny) – GOP-leaning swing district
- Syracuse and surrounding areas (Ithaca, Cortland, Auburn), plus eastern Wayne County. (Maffei/Buerkle) – around 60% for Obama
- Much of the Southern Tier, including Elmira and Corning, plus Canandaigua and suburbs of Rochester (Brighton, Henrietta). (Reed/Zeller) – GOP-leaning swing district
- Northern and eastern Buffalo suburbs (Tonawanda, Amherst, Cheektowaga) plus Niagara Falls and Batavia; includes all of Niagara and Wyoming counties. (Lee) – swing district
- Buffalo and Southtowns suburbs (West Seneca, Orchard Park, Hamburg), plus Jamestown and Olean. (Higgins) – around 60% for Obama
- Rochester and surrounding suburbs (Irondequoit, Fairport, Chili, Greece), plus Orleans County and eastern Genesee County. (Slaughter) – under 60% for Obama
As seen above, the prospectus would have created an all-swing district environment on suburban Long Island, fostered many swing districts in both Upstate and around the Tri-State area, and united many common areas without resorting to extreme gerrymandering.
However, if an additional seat were to be lost, there would be many more implications with Towns all but certain to be forced into retirement in Brooklyn (with his 10th now taking in much of Clarke’s current 11th), the creation of a possibly incumbent-less Binghamton/Elmira-area district, and the implosion of Slaughter’s linear district between Buffalo and Rochester. On a closing note, New York has been a rather interesting state to watch this election cycle, and next year may be even more interesting.
Kyle Stanley
Kyle Stanley's Perspectives 